Radio Musical

Rating:
5
http://radiomusical.com
Genres:  Pop
Bitrate: 64
Música romántica las 24 horas
List of radio
Your Radio playlist is empty (Sign Up).
YouTube
Reading speed: 0
RSS: News
  • Music
  • Football
  • Humor
  • Food
  • Fitness
  • Politics
  • The Final Update: A Look Back and A Look Ahead

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Thu, 10 Nov 2016 13:24:00 +0000

    ELECTION POSTMORTEM

    A full day has come and gone as the nation and the world comes to grips with the fact that, yes, the United States really did elect Donald Trump to become our 45th President. To say it has taken some a bit longer to process this than others would be a bit of an understatement.

    Certainly, there are just as many people upset with the results as are applauding it, simply evidenced by the fact that Clinton actually won the popular vote, albeit by just 230,053 votes out of 119,616,001 cast. Which brings up an interesting statistical note that Democrats have now won the popular vote in six of the last seven elections, but only took the White House in four of those campaigns.

    One change from Wednesday's update is the final electoral count has been adjusted to Trump winning 306 to 232, as New Hampshire ended up going to Clinton after all, as did the senatorial race going to Democrat Maggie Hassan over Republican Kelly Ayotte. The results were absolutely razor thin and may still be subject to a recount, but as of this time, the Democrats will hold 48 seats in the Senate, giving them enough votes (with the independents) to filibuster, but not enough (obviously) to pass any of their own agrenda.

    And now that the election is (finally!) over, it's time to take a deep breath, sit back, maybe stretch a bit, and wait to see what's going to happen next. The one bit of advice I can give everyone is to never assume you can predict with President Trump will do. He's proven that time and time again during the primaries and the general election that he is not bound by convention or doing things "the way they've always been done."

    He is his own man who has proven time and again that his way of doing things works, and considering he is about to accede to the highest office in the land, who is to say his method doesn't work. Certainly not Trump himself. He has often said his best advisor is himself, and in a career that has seen him succeed far more often than fail, even his most ardent critics have to admit he has accomplished a lot following that self-advice.

    President Trump has many challenges and obstacles ahead of him. I could list them all, but there are plenty of other news and political sites out there that have dozens of reporters writing tens of thousands of words on the same thing, so I'll let the professionals do their thing.

    For me, though, I will point out one thing to all those who worry about the future of the country moving forward: the Republic will stand. It has stood for 238 years, though a horrific civil war, two world wars, countless economic upheavals, presidents both great and small, honest and corrupt. It has risen to every challenge, every attack, and achieved greatness that has never been equaled in the history of the world.

    We have tamed a continent, brought peace and prosperity to much of the world, lead the way in science, industry and the arts, and have inspired generations with our hope for a better life and a better future. And while we still have many problems and many challenges, we have the strength as a nation built over the past two centuries to believe we can rise to any occasion and succeed.

    Take solace and take hope in our history, in our great culture, in our citizens who have embraced the ideals of freedom and independence, and rest assured that no matter what, the Republic will stand,

    POLLING POSTMORTEM

    There has been a lot written and postulated in the past day over "what went wrong?" with the polling, which obviously completely missed the boat when it came to predicting the election results. There are many theories: voters lied to pollsters either out of shame or distrust of the pollster, there were a lot of "hidden" voters, and FBI Director Comey's letter affected a lot of early voters, are among the three I've seen most often. Combined with the modern challenge of even getting people to respond (landlines are disappearing and internet polling is not a reliable replacement at this time), these all seem to be reasonable excuses.

    But I disagree.

    It's not that I think there aren't elements of those three theories at play, it's that I think the polling industry is trying to point to everyone other than themselves for missing the boat. I mentioned yesterday that when I broke down where the polls were mostly accurate vs where they were badly off, it was quite noticeable that the red states were the ones who way overperformed more often than not. And to me, the reason for that is simple and a problem endemic to the polling method itself: the concept of the "likely voter".

    Pollsters want to be certain that the people who say they are voting for candidate "A" are actually going to do so. So they structure their questions to gauge how likely that voter will actually follow through. These questions are based on things like "did you vote in the primary" and "are you registered with the political party" and most importantly "how often have you voted in the past". The answers to these questions give a pollster a good feel for whether candidate "A" will actually get the promised vote. And thus, polls are weighted to give the more likely voters higher statistical strength in the polling model.

    And this is where the polling model failed this year. Donald Trump was not a conventional candidate, nor was his support made up of conventional voters. And this isn't even hindsight speaking; this has been known since the day he made the announcement he was running for office. One had to only look at the turnout in the primaries, where Trump brought in tens of thousands of new voters to the polls in every state to see evidence of a growing surge in newcomers to the voting booth. But because there were new voters, many of whom weren't registered with a party, they didn't score high at all in the likely voter model. The simple fact that those voters, obviously, did show up at the polls and voted is where the polls failed.

    So what's the fix? Pollsters will need to continue to build more reliable methods of reaching voters (online groups like YouGov seem to be growing in reliability and accuracy, which is a good direction to take), and at the same time will need to take a long hard look at their modeling, especially how they weight likely voters.

    And maybe, just maybe, the media could stop relying solely on voter polls and maybe, just maybe, use some actual political science modeling, which was far more accurate in predicting the current outcome than the voter preference polls.

    But since I happen to have a degree in political science, maybe I'm not as unbiased an observer as others. Or maybe we in the polisci world just need to do a better job of making our papers and reports flashier and easier for the low-attention-span "oh shiny!" mass media to understand.

    FINAL RESULTS

    Here's the final adjusted chart of my polling projections, the actual results, and the difference between the two, broken down in categories based on how accurate the projections ended up being.

    Good Call Projected Actual Change






    New York DEM 21.9 DEM 21.3 - 0.6
    Oregon DEM 11.2 DEM 10.6 - 0.6
    Connecticut DEM 13 DEM 12.2 - 0.8
    New Jersey DEM 13.7 DEM 12.2 - 0.9
    Montana GOP 19.4 GOP 20.5 + 1.1
    Nevada DEM 1.3 DEM 2.4 + 1.1
    Colorado DEM 3.5 DEM 2.1 - 1.4
    Illinois DEM 14.6 DEM 16 + 1.4
    Delaware DEM 13 DEM 11.5 - 1.5
    Virginia DEM 6.4 DEM 4.9 - 1.5
    Washington DEM 16 DEM 17.5 - 1.5
    Rhode Island DEM 12.8 DEM 14.6 + 1.8
    Florida DEM 0.5 GOP 1.3 + 1.8
    Texas GOP 7.2 GOP 9.2 + 2
    Vermont DEM 30.5 DEM 28.5 - 2






    Pretty Close










    Georgia GOP 3.2 GOP 5.7 + 2.5
    California DEM 25.3 DEM 28.2 + 2.9
    Arizona GOP 1.5 GOP 4.3 + 2.8
    Michigan DEM 2.5 GOP 0.3 + 2.8
    Pennsylvania DEM 2.7 GOP 1.2 + 3.9
    Massachusetts DEM 23.3 DEM 27.3 + 4






    Missed A Bit










    Indiana GOP 15.1 GOP 19.3 + 4.2
    Wisconsin DEM 3.2 GOP 1 + 4.2
    Maryland DEM 29.5 DEM 25.2 - 4.3
    New Mexico DEM 3.7 DEM 8.3 + 4.6
    Iowa GOP 4.7 GOP 9.6 + 4.9
    Alaska GOP 10.1 GOP 15.2 + 5.1
    Louisiana GOP 14.2 GOP 19.7 - 5.5
    Ohio GOP 2.3 GOP 8.6 + 6.3
    Kansas GOP 14.6 GOP 21 + 6.4
    Minnesota DEM 7.9 DEM 1.4 - 6.5
    Arkansas GOP 19.7 GOP 26.6 + 6.9
    North Carolina DEM 3.1 GOP 3.8 + 6.9






    Missed A Lot










    Mississippi GOP 10.9 GOP 18.5 + 7.6
    New Hampshire DEM 7.7 DEM 0.1 - 7.6
    South Dakota GOP 21.4 GOP 29.8 + 8.4
    D.C. DEM 80.2 DEM 88.7 + 8.5
    Nebraska GOP 17.7 GOP 26.3 + 8.6
    South Carolina GOP 4.9 GOP 14.1 + 9.2
    Hawaii DEM 22.5 DEM 32.2 + 9.7
    Kentucky GOP 19.7 GOP 29.8 + 10.1
    Nebraska GOP 16.1 GOP 26.3 + 10.2
    Alabama GOP 18 GOP 28.3 + 10.3
    Oklahoma GOP 26.1 GOP 36.4 + 10.3






    Not Even Close










    Missouri GOP 8 GOP 19.1 + 11.1
    North Dakota GOP 25 GOP 36.3 + 11.3
    Idaho GOP 19.1 GOP 31.6 + 12.5
    Wyoming GOP 35.1 GOP 47.6 + 12.5
    Utah GOP 6.3 GOP 19 + 12.7
    West Virginia GOP 27.6 GOP 42.2 + 14.6
    Tennessee GOP 10.1 GOP 26.2 + 16.1












  • The Day After: What Happened?

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Wed, 09 Nov 2016 12:38:00 +0000

    ELECTION POSTMORTEM 

    Well...that was a long night.

    And let me say, with all sincerity, congratulations to President-Elect Donald Trump. He ran the most unconventional (successful) campaign in modern presidential history and overcome what was just yesterday seen as near overwhelming odds.

    So, what happened? Every prediction site was projecting a win for Hillary Clinton, this one included. The talk amongst everyone wasn't whether she would win, but by how much.

    Except in the final tally (as of this morning), Trump beats Clinton 310 to 228.

    There are four theories I have that account for this victory, two related to polling, and two of a political nature:

    1. Polling in rural areas was off by often large margins, as non-urban turnout far exceeded what was expected,
    2. Polling methods themselves are now outdated and increasingly inaccurate (both phone and internet-based),  
    3. The United States is not nearly as progressive as many (most?) in the mainstream media had assumed and/or hoped for, 
    4. Rural and suburban voters were fed up with the political status quo of both parties and were ready to burn down the proverbial house and start fresh.

    Donald Trump, ridiculed by much of the mainstream media, disliked by much of the Republican establishment, and vilified by liberals and progressives as a racist, misogynistic buffoon, rose above all of those groups to tap into a core of anger, resentment and disillusionment to propel himself to victory. Trump openly dismissed many of the previous standards of campaigning, both politically and organizationally. 

    And won. 

    We'll be talking, writing, and reading about this campaign for decades. But for all the nitty-gritty analysis that will be coming starting today, one question will loom over everything: is this a personality-driven victory or an actual political movement?

    Can Trump win over skeptical members of the Republican Party and reshape the GOP in his image? Can he reach across the aisle to moderates and progressives? Will he be able to build on his campaign success to govern successfully?

    These are all questions that cannot be answered now, but will be in the forefront of everyone's mind as we move into the next four years under the leadership of President Donald Trump. Whether you support him or not, no one can deny one simple thing: we have absolutely no idea what's going to happen next. May we live in exciting times, indeed.

    POLLING POSTMORTEM 

    The entire point of this blog was to test out my customized statistical projection algorithm. So, did my algorithm work on a day when so many projections seemingly turned out to be wrong?

    Yes and no. 

    Yes, in the sense that when I had solid data to work with, it seemed to do no worse than projection methods used by the other major sites. And no, in the sense that it still missed far too many states by far too large a margin. My comfort there is that I am far from being alone in that respect, as the other sites also badly missed on those states.

    The chart below shows my projections, the actual results, and the difference between the two. I've placed the states into five categories: "Good Call" (up to 2% difference), "Pretty Close" (2 to 4%). "Missed A Bit" (4 to 8%), "Missed A Lot" (8 to 12%), and "Not Even Close" (over 12%).

    All told, I had 23 states predicted within the standard 4% margin-of-error, which is not bad but not great. On the flip side, I missed 13 states by over 10%, which is not good at all.

    So what happened? 

    Let's take a look at the states I completely whiffed on: Wyoming, West Virginia, Tennessee, and Alaska. All are conservative, mostly rural, and polled very lightly due to their not being remotely considered swing states. My theory is that the groundswell of rural support and turnout for Trump was vastly under-reported (and unexpected), which lead to such high-percentage misses. I also think that polling firms are going to have to rethink and redesign their own models to adjust for a more conservative landscape than they had assumed.

    The same theory holds true for the "Missed A Lot" group. Again, mostly conservative (with the exception of D.C and Hawaii), mostly rural (again, with the exception of D.C), and except for Utah and to a smaller extent South Carolina and Missouri, lightly polled due to not being swing states. And Utah was a special case with the three-candidate aspect there making polling modeling more difficult.

    But what about the states I got right? There, polling worked. And the states in the first two sections are a mix of urban and rural, swing and non-swing states. What's the main commonality? Look at the party affiliation: 17 out of 23 states leaned to the left, politically. 

    Could it be that polling firms aren't as good at gauging support levels for conservatives as they are for progressives? I don't have an answer to that, but the results do rather support asking the question, at the very least.

    For now, I'll say I've enjoyed the past six months of running this blog. I appreciate the support of the members of Fark who encouraged me to do this, and I appreciate the (rather surprising) number of people who made this site a part of their daily routine. I'll have a final wrap-up tomorrow and then...well, who knows? 

    Good Call Projected Actual Change






    Connecticut DEM 13 DEM 12.4 - 0.6
    New York DEM 21.9 DEM 21.2 - 0.7
    Oregon DEM 11.2 DEM 10.4 - 0.8
    Indiana GOP 15.1 GOP 16 + 0.9
    New Jersey DEM 13.7 DEM 12.8 - 0.9
    Nevada DEM 1.3 DEM 2.4 + 1.1
    California DEM 25.3 DEM 26.6 + 1.3
    Alabama GOP 18 GOP 16.6 - 1.4
    Illinois DEM 14.6 DEM 16 + 1.4
    Delaware DEM 13 DEM 11.5 - 1.5
    Rhode Island DEM 12.8 DEM 14.6 + 1.8
    Florida DEM 0.5 GOP 1.4 + 1.9
    Texas GOP 7.2 GOP 9.2 + 2






    Pretty Close










    Georgia GOP 3.2 GOP 5.9 + 2.7
    Maryland DEM 29.5 DEM 32.3 + 2.8
    Arizona GOP 1.5 GOP 4.4 + 2.9
    Michigan DEM 2.5 GOP 0.5 + 3
    Colorado DEM 3.5 DEM 2.6 - 0.9
    Virginia DEM 6.4 DEM 4.7 - 1.7
    Vermont DEM 30.5 DEM 28.5 - 2
    Washington DEM 16 DEM 18.5 + 2.5
    Montana GOP 19.4 GOP 23.1 + 3.7
    Pennsylvania DEM 2.7 GOP 1.1 - 3.8






    Missed A Bit










    Wisconsin DEM 3.2 GOP 1 + 4.2
    Massachusetts DEM 23.3 DEM 27.6 + 4.3
    New Mexico DEM 3.7 DEM 8.3 + 4.6
    Iowa GOP 4.7 GOP 9.4 + 4.7
    Louisiana GOP 14.2 GOP 19.7 - 5.5
    Arkansas GOP 19.7 GOP 26.6 + 6.9
    Ohio GOP 2.3 GOP 8.6 + 6.3
    Minnesota DEM 7.9 DEM 1 - 6.9
    North Carolina DEM 3.1 GOP 3.8 + 6.9
    Kansas GOP 14.6 GOP 21.9 + 7.3
    Mississippi GOP 10.9 GOP 18.2 + 7.3
    New Hampshire DEM 7.7 GOP 0.1 - 7.6






    Missed A Lot










    South Dakota GOP 21.4 GOP 29.7 + 8.3
    D.C. DEM 80.2 DEM 88.7 + 8.5
    Nebraska GOP 17.7 GOP 26.6 + 8.9
    Kentucky GOP 19.7 GOP 29.8 + 10.1
    Oklahoma GOP 26.1 GOP 36.4 + 10.3
    Idaho GOP 19.1 GOP 29.5 + 10.4
    Utah GOP 6.3 GOP 16.9 + 10.6
    Hawaii DEM 22.5 DEM 33.2 + 10.7
    South Carolina GOP 4.9 GOP 15.6 + 10.7
    Missouri GOP 8 GOP 19.1 + 11.1
    North Dakota GOP 25 GOP 36.3 + 11.3
    Nebraska GOP 16.1 GOP 27.8 + 11.7






    Not Even Close










    Wyoming GOP 35.1 GOP 47.6 + 12.5
    West Virginia GOP 27.6 GOP 42.2 + 14.6
    Tennessee GOP 10.1 GOP 26.2 + 16.1
    Alaska GOP 10.1 GOP 28.3 + 18.2

    * Maine not included because, frustratingly, I can't get the numerical breakdowns for the separate congressional districts at this time. Also note that not all states have complete returns in yet, so this chart will likely change a bit between today and tomorrow.





  • Election Day 2016: The Final Polls and Projections

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Tue, 08 Nov 2016 12:45:00 +0000

    STATE POLLING

    Today is Election Day. First and foremost, if you haven't already voted, please go out to the polls and cast your vote for the candidate and issues of your choice. It's one of the great privileges of being a citizen in that we have the voice and the choice of our leaders and laws.

    And with that, it's time to review the polls. Of which there are a lot. A whole lot. As in, it would take several pushes of the "Pg Dn" key to list them all here. Every single state in the union has been polled at least twice, with each of the battleground states being polled multiple times. So, instead of posting links well over 100 new polls (yes, that many), I'm going post my final calculations for each of the swing states.

    Likely Republican

    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6.4%
    Utah: Trump up by 6.3%
    South Carolina: Trump up by 4.9%
    Iowa: Trump up by 4.7%
     
    Leaning Republican

    Georgia: Trump up by 3.2%
    Ohio: Trump up by 2.3%
    Arizona: Trump up by 1.5%
    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%

    Leaning Democrat

    Florida: Clinton up by 0.5%
    Nevada: Trump up by 1.3%
    Michigan: Clinton up by 2.5%
    Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 2.7%
    North Carolina: Clinton up by 3.1%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 3.2%
    Colorado: Clinton up by 3.5%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 3.7%

    Likely Democrat

    Virginia: Clinton up by 6.4%

    The final calculations for all 50 states and the District of Columbia are on the complete State Polling Averages page. And for those who want to check on a specific state (or states), here are the four main sites I use to gather polling data, where you can search to your statistical heart's content:


    ELECTORAL PROJECTION

    According to my math and all the polling data I've accumulated, here is my final projection for the Electoral College tally (not counting any potential faithless electors): Hillary Clinton defeats Donald Trump 322 to 216.

    However, I will leave myself some wiggle room: fully twelve states are within the standard +/- 4% margin of error, and four states are within a +/- 2% margin, the most noticeable being Florida within +/- 1%.

    That said, even if Florida goes to Trump and everything else holds to projection, Clinton would still win by a final tally of 293 to 245.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    Associated Press -- Americans choose between Clinton and Trump

    After nearly two years of bitterness and rancor, America will elect its 45th president Tuesday, making Hillary Clinton the nation's first female commander in chief or choosing billionaire businessman Donald Trump, whose volatile campaign has upended U.S. politics.

    CNN -- A historic moment arrives

    Americans will cast their verdicts on Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump Tuesday after an exhausting, acrimonious campaign that at times revolted the nation and tore at its fabric. History will be made no matter how the vote turns out.

    Fox News -- Trump, Clinton make final pitches as voting begins

    Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton started off neck-and-neck in the 2016 presidential election, as Trump won over the voters of three New Hampshire precincts early Tuesday morning, 32-25.

    Politico -- How to watch Election Day like a pro

    More than 46 million early votes have already been cast. Now, on Election Day, somewhere in the neighborhood of 80 to 100 million more votes will follow, depending on the level of turnout. In 2008, turnout spiked to 62.3 percent of eligible citizens. Four years later, voter turnout fell to an estimated 57.5 percent.

    The Hill -- What to watch for on Election Day

    Political junkies will be on edge Tuesday looking for any signs that might tell them if Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton will become the 45th president of the United States. Here’s what to watch for as the election unfolds.
     

  • The Day Before: New polls from Florida, Ohio, Michigan, New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New York

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Mon, 07 Nov 2016 11:55:00 +0000

    STATE POLLING

    New polls today from Florida (tied), Ohio (Trump +1, Clinton +1), Michigan (Clinton +5,  Clinton +5, Clinton +5), New Mexico (Clinton +5), Virginia (Clinton +5), Colorado (Clinton +5), Iowa (Trump +6), and New York (Clinton +17).

    So here we are, the day before Election Day. And after months after endless months of campaigning, it all comes down to the usual (or mostly usual) handful of states. And today's polls, coming on the heels of the latest FBI announcement, should relax the Clinton campaign staff. At least a bit.

    Florida and Ohio are still very close, which was predicted six months ago, but the rest of the results are either good news or expected. And while many in the media like to keep the "horse race" narrative alive and kicking, the math has been calling for a solid Clinton victory for the past six months.

    Granted, Trump had gained a bit of momentum in the final push, even going so far as to giving up control of his own Twitter account in an effort to stay on message, but the analytics show that it is highly unlikely it has been enough to change the projection of the race.

    It is all but certain that tomorrow there will be a huge influx of new polls. I wouldn't be surprised to see all 50 states represented (with the battleground states having multiple polls). As such, I plan to be up early to crunch all the numbers to give my final predictions.

    Then on Wednesday, I will post the side-by-side results of the actual results vs my predictions to see how well my algorithm worked. After that, well...maybe it's time to head back to the gym every morning or at the very least find a new hobby. Until the 2020 campaign starts.

    Which will probably be Thursday. Or maybe Friday.

    ELECTORAL PROJECTION

    No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 312 to 226. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
     
    Likely Republican

    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
    Utah: Trump up by 5.9%
    Alaska: Trump up by 4.6%

    Leaning Republican

    Arizona: Trump up by 3.9%
    Iowa: Trump up by 3.4%
    Georgia: Trump up by 3.1%
    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 2.4%
    Nevada: Trump up by 1.4%
    New Hampshire: Trump up by 0.2%
    Ohio: Trump up by 0.2%

    Leaning Democrat

    Florida: Clinton up by 1.2%
    North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.8%
    Colorado: Clinton up by 3.4%
    Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 3.4%
    Michigan: Clinton up by 3.7%

    Likely Democrat

    Virginia: Clinton up by 4.1%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4.9%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.4%
     
    Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    Associated Press -- Clinton email case handling brings tumultuous time for FBI

    The FBI's handling of the Hillary Clinton email investigation has created more turmoil for the bureau than any other matter in recent history, exposing internal tensions with the Justice Department and stirring concerns the famously apolitical organization unnecessarily injected itself into the campaign.

    CNN -- FBI worked 'around the clock' to review emails in Clinton server probe

    In the days since the FBI dropped a bombshell into the presidential race with the discovery of new emails relevant to the Hillary Clinton server investigation, bureau investigators worked "around the clock" to review the large volume of emails, two law enforcement officials told CNN.

    Fox News -- FBI: email review completed, decision not to prosecute Clinton stands 

    FBI Director James Comey said Sunday that the agency has reviewed all of the Hillary Clinton emails recently discovered in an unrelated case and that his conclusion in July not to prosecute Clinton after the FBI’s original investigation into her use of a private email server still stands.

    Politico -- Trump rejects FBI's email conclusion

    Reacting to news that the FBI won't change its determination in the Hillary Clinton email probe, Republican nominee Donald Trump made it clear he still regards her as guilty and is convinced she will ultimately face justice.

    The Hill -- Clinton confidence grows after FBI news

    Hillary Clinton backers are bullish about their chances for victory on Tuesday after another surprise from the FBI — this time in the Democratic nominee’s favor. FBI Director James Comey’s Sunday letter to Congress said recently-discovered emails had not changed his conclusion that Clinton should not face criminal charges for her use of a private email address and server as secretary of State.
     

  • The Final Weekend: New polls from Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Florida Iowa, Colorado, Washington, Arizona, Michigan

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Sun, 06 Nov 2016 12:19:00 +0000

    STATE POLLING

    New polls today from Pennsylvania (Clinton +6, Clinton +4, Clinton +2), North Carolina (Clinton +3), New Hampshire (Clinton +1), Nevada (tiedTrump +5), Ohio (Clinton +1), Florida (Trump +1), Iowa (Trump +7, Clinton +1), Colorado (Clinton +5tied), Washington (Clinton +12), Arizona (Trump +8), and Michigan (tied).

    Is Clinton really in danger of losing the election after leading for the entire general campaign? That's the question on everyone's mind as Trump's numbers continue to improve in state after state, raising the possibility that he may pull off one of the greatest upsets in modern electoral history.

    So, let's look at how he could get to 270:

    1. Take Maine's 2nd District and its one EV. He currently leads there by 2.4% and has been leading all Summer, so this is plausible.
    2. Win Hew Hampshire and its four EVs. As of today, the state has flipped over to the GOP side, though just barely (it's all but a virtual tie). This one looks like a coin flip.
    3. Win Florida and its 29 EVs. This is the big prize. And he's only down by less than two points, so it's definitely in the realm of possibility.
    4. Win Ohio and its 18 EVs. This is the second biggest prize. It's also at the "coin flip" stage, with a slight advantage to Trump.
    5. Win Iowa and its 6 EVS. His lead is slowly increasing, so it's looking better for him there everyday.
    6. Out West, sweep Nevada (6 EVs), Utah (6 EVs), and Arizona (11 EVs). All three states are looking more possible every day, as he's now leading in all three.
    7. Win North Carolina and its 15 EVs. This would give him exactly 270 EVs and the keys to the White House. However, Clinton has been leading steadily, if not by much, for weeks there. This is likely the most difficult state for Trump to flip, but it's still polling within the margin-or-error, so it's definitely a possibility he could flip it over to the GOP side.

    So, in summation, he needs to win everything in the current GOP columns, plus Florida and North Carolina. The other path, if he doesn't win North Carolina, is to win Michigan, which gives him 271 (and in this scenario, he doesn't even need the Maine EV). Or, less likely, if he doesn't win New Hampshire, he could still win in he flips either Michigan or Colorado.

    So, the answer to our question is, yes, Clinton really is in danger of losing the election. It's not likely, but it's far less unlikely than it was just two weeks ago. The key to Tuesday night is to watch New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Florida. If Trump wins all three, it's all going to come down to the Western states and will be a long night for everyone. If Clinton wins all three (or even just North Carolina and Florida), then it's champagne time for the Democrats.

    ELECTORAL PROJECTION

    Two changes to the map today: New Hampshire switches from "leaning" Democrat to "leaning" Republican while Michigan moves from "likely" to "leaning" Democrat. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 312 to 226.

    Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
     
    Likely Republican

    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
    Utah: Trump up by 5.9%
    Alaska: Trump up by 4.6%

    Leaning Republican

    Arizona: Trump up by 3.9%
    Georgia: Trump up by 3.1%
    Iowa: Trump up by 2.6%
    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 2.4%
    Nevada: Trump up by 1.4%
    Ohio: Trump up by 0.9%
    New Hampshire: Trump up by 0.2%

    Leaning Democrat

    Florida: Clinton up by 1.9%
    Colorado: Clinton up by 2.4%
    North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.8%
    Michigan: Clinton up by 3.2%
    Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 3.4%

    Likely Democrat

    Virginia: Clinton up by 4.6%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4.9%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.4%
     
    Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    Associated Press -- Trump, Clinton take different strategies to shore up votes

    Donald Trump is promising to take his campaign into traditional Democratic territory as a sign that he's not giving up on appealing to people outside the Republican Party. Hillary Clinton is focusing her efforts in the campaign's final days on energizing voters who usually support the Democratic nominee, but may need an extra boost.

    CNN -- Trump rushed off stage at campaign rally; protester says he was roughed up

    Donald Trump was rushed off a stage here Saturday by Secret Service agents during a campaign speech after an incident in the crowd near the front of the stage. A Secret Service spokesperson said in a statement there was a commotion in the crowd and an "unidentified individual" shouted "gun," though no weapon was found after a "thorough search."

    Fox News -- Senate Battle: Race for control goes down to the wire

    The presidential battle isn’t the only 2016 contest pundits are reluctant to call: The races expected to decide which party controls the Senate remain dramatically close in the final hours before Election Day.

    Politico -- Nate Silver rages at Huffington Post editor in 14-part tweetstorm

    Nate Silver unloaded Saturday on the Huffington Post’s Ryan Grim, who accused the polling guru and founder of the prediction website fivethirtyeight.com of “changing the results of polls to fit where he thinks the polls truly are, rather than simply entering the poll numbers into his model and crunching them.”

    The Hill -- Experts hedge bets as election tightens

    The gap between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump continues to narrow as the candidates jet around the country in the final frenzy before Election Day. Clinton is relying on star power provided by LeBron James, Jay-Z, Beyonce, Katy Perry and others, while Trump forges ahead with his incursion into blue states.
     

  • The Final Weekend: New battleground polls from Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Mexico

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Sat, 05 Nov 2016 11:41:00 +0000

    STATE POLLING

    New battleground polls today from Georgia (Trump +2, Trump +4), Iowa (Trump +3), New Hampshire (tied, Trump +2), Colorado (Clinton +6Clinton +5, Clinton +1), Virginia (Clinton +7, Clinton +5), Wiconsin (Clinton +6), Michigan (Clinton +4, Clinton +5), and New Mexico (Clinton +3).

    Other than New Hampshire, everything today is pretty much status quo: the candidates with small leads in swing states are maintaining those small leads in the swing states.

    Other than New Hampshire.

    We're not really sure what gotten under the skin of the voters in the Granite State, but Clinton's long running lead in the state has all but evaporated in the last four days, dropping down to an almost virtual tie in our cumulative averaging.

    And with the map tightening up all across the board, those four electoral votes could end up being crucial, along with who wins the also-very-close Senatorial race could end up being the key to which party has control of the Senate.

    The three Eastern states that will be most closely watched on Election Day will be New Hampshire, North Carolina and Florida. If Clinton takes all three (or the two bigger ones), it's pretty much over. If Trump takes all three, or even just one of the big ones, it's going to be a much longer night for both campaigns...and those of us watching our news channel of choice.

    We also have polls from Kansas (Trump +24), Indiana (Trump +10, Trump +11), New Jersey (Clinton +11), and Massachusetts (Clinton +30).

    I'm not really sure why anyone felt it necessary to run two polls on Indiana, which has been solidly Trump all year, but memories of Obama's win of the state in 2008 still seem to haunt Republicans there, so I guess they just wanted some last-minute reassurance.

    ELECTORAL PROJECTION

    No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 316 to 222.

    Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

    Likely Republican

    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
    Utah: Trump up by 5.9%
    Alaska: Trump up by 4.6%

    Leaning Republican

    Georgia: Trump up by 3.1%
    Arizona: Trump up by 2.8%
    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 2.4%
    Iowa: Trump up by 2.3%
    Nevada: Trump up by 0.8%
    Ohio: Trump up by 0.7%

    Leaning Democrat

    New Hampshire: Clinton up by 0.1%
    North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.5%
    Florida: Clinton up by 2.7%
    Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 3.1%
    Colorado: Clinton up by 3.5%

    Likely Democrat

    Virginia: Clinton up by 4.4%
    Michigan: Clinton up by 4.6%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4.9%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.4%

    Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    Associated Press -- Trump says he's fine by himself; Clinton hangs with Beyoncé

    Donald Trump boasts that he doesn't need stars to fill his venues in the closing days of the presidential campaign. Maybe so, but the very people Hillary Clinton needs to shore up her campaign — millennials and minorities — appear all too happy to see her with singer Beyoncé and rapper husband Jay Z.

    CNN -- North Carolina counties must restore voters to rolls, judge rules

    A federal judge in North Carolina granted a preliminary injunction to the NAACP on Friday, holding that residents whose voter registrations were canceled in recent months because of a so-called "individual challenge law" must have their registration restored

    Fox News -- Fight for Senate control going down to the wire

    The presidential race has reverted to its form for much of the general election: a small but clear lead for Hillary Clinton. But the Senate? Who the heck knows? Democrats need five seats to regain the majority in the Senate, and it certainly looks like they could pull it off.

    Politico -- National Enquirer bought rights to Trump affair story, but never published

    The National Enquirer paid $150,000 to a former Playboy playmate for exclusive rights to her story about having an affair with Donald Trump, but it never published the story, according to The Wall Street Journal.

    The Hill -- Melania Trump worked in US before getting proper visa

    Melania Trump was paid more than $20,000 for modeling jobs in the United States before she had legal permission to work in the country, The Associated Press reported Friday.
     

  • The Final Week: New polls from Pennsylvania, Utah, Georgia, New Hampshire, Florida, Colorado, Texas

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Fri, 04 Nov 2016 10:59:00 +0000

    STATE POLLING

    New polls today from Pennsylvania (Clinton +1), Utah (Trump +6, Trump +12, Trump +11), Georgia (Trump +1), New Hampshire (Trump +5, tied), Florida (Clinton +4), Colorado (Clinton +6), and Texas (Trump +9, Trump +14).

    Election Day is Tuesday. We know this. So do the vast majority of voters, 98% or so of whom have apparently made up their mind. So why are the polls jumping all over the place? Why are we seeing such swings day-to-day when there realisiticaly just aren't enough undecided voters out there to affect such changes?

    Steven Shepard at Politico has a theory: when one candidate dominates headlines in a negative way, the supporters of that candidate are more likely to decline to take part in polls. It's an interesting theory, but my own take is harder to solve: I believe polling itself is broken.

    The sharp decline in landlines, the less likely people are to even answer unknown numbers, the often sharp differences in how pollsters set up their preferential calculations (percent of each group as represented in the overall sample), and so forth, have all led to increasingly inaccurate polling.

    One of the reasons sites like this use cumulative polling is to try and average out the swings. And many sites, like this one as well, use weighted averaging, which gives more "strength" to recent polls and less to older ones, under the theory the newer the poll, the more representative it us of the current status of the state. Yet we've seen often wild swings even with our cumulative weighted modeling.

    How can a candidate in three polls over just two days be up five, tied, and up one? Or up six and twelve on the same day? Those are statistically huge swings (and those were just from today's polls). I sincerely doubt there are that many voters in New Hampshire who in less than two weeks went from a +12 for Clinton to a +5 for Trump. A seventeen point swing in less than two weeks isn't a sign of a huge change of heart, it's a sign (at least to me) of a major flaw in polling. And I never bought in to Texas being a swing state, at least not this year.

    So, what can be done about it? I'll be honest: I have no idea. I'm not a pollster (though I've learned an awful lot since I started this blog a few months ago); I'm a statistics geek with a dusty political science degree who wanted to see if I could develop a better algorithm than was being used by other sites. Arrogant? A bit. Is the algorithm working? I won't know until next Wednesday when all the results are in. But as to fixing the problem...that's simply out of my area of expertise.

    However, one thing I do know: there will be an awful lot of experts (both actual and armchair) who will be spending and lot of time (and money) trying to solve the polling problem. Until then...who really knows if any of the numbers I've been crunching for months have any basis in reality.

    As for the predictions themselves, I just have to go with the data I am presented. And, as such, there are for changes to map today: Texas moves from "likely" to "solid" Republican, Utah moves from "leaning" to "likely" Republican, Georgia moves from "likely"to "leaning" Republican, and New Hampshire moves from "likely" to "leaning" Democratic.

    Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 316 to 222. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

    Likely Republican

    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
    Utah: Trump up by 5.9%
    Alaska: Trump up by 4.6%

    Leaning Republican

    Georgia: Trump up by 3.4%
    Arizona: Trump up by 2.8%
    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 2.4%
    Iowa: Trump up by 2%
    Nevada: Trump up by 0.8%
    Ohio: Trump up by 0.7%

    Leaning Democrat

    New Hampshire: Clinton up by 2.1%
    North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.5%
    Florida: Clinton up by 2.7%
    Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 3.1%
    Colorado: Clinton up by 3.9%

    Likely Democrat

    Virginia: Clinton up by 4.3%
    Michigan: Clinton up by 4.9%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 5.1%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%

    Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    Associated Press -- Voter intimidation arguments head to federal court

    Democrats will argue before a federal judge in New Jersey on Friday that Republicans are coordinating with GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump to intimidate voters, charges that the Republican Party says are not true in either the federal case or in the four other states where Democrats are waging similar battles.

    CNN -- Democrats, Trump lawyers going to court early -- and often

    As Democrats warn their supporters of voter suppression efforts and Donald Trump urges his followers to watch polling areas, lawyers from both sides are filing fiery legal briefs and laying the groundwork for potential challenges on Election Day.

    Fox News -- Philly transit strike could cause Clinton, Democrats headaches

    An ongoing transit strike in Philadelphia is raising concerns among some Democrats that the stand-off could depress voter turnout in the battleground state's deep-blue stronghold – but union officials say the agency is using Election Day as a scare tactic and unfair bargaining chip.

    Politico -- Trump has a path, and if the polls are wrong, it’s wider than thought

    Hillary Clinton leads in most national polls, and in enough battleground states to put her on pace to surpass the 270 electoral votes she needs Tuesday to become the next president. But not far beneath the surface, as Donald Trump has narrowed the gap following the late-breaking FBI announcement of a renewed review of emails related to her private server, lurks a question making Democrats squirm in these frenzied final days.

    The Hill -- Four days to go: What to watch for

    The presidential campaigns are sprinting for the finish amid tightening polls that show new opportunities for Donald Trump as he seeks a late comeback against Hillary Clinton.  "If the Cubs can do it, he can too," one Republican told The Hill.
     

  • The Final Week: New battleground polls from Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Georgia, New Hampshire

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Thu, 03 Nov 2016 12:50:00 +0000

    Sorry for the delay in getting the Thursday update out, but it was a rather late night last night. It was worth it, however, to see the Chicago Cubs win their first World Series title since 1908. Even this born-and-raised Dodgers fan can appreciate what a great win this was for the Cubs and their legions (and generations) of fans.

    For a political reference, the last time the Cubs won it all, the popular Teddy Roosevelt honored his campaign promise not to seek a third term, and his then Secretary of War, William Howard Taft, went on to defeat three-time Democratic nominee William Jennings Bryan by an electoral total of 321-162 in the 1908 election.

    STATE POLLING

    New battleground polls today from Michigan (Clinton +3), Ohio (Trump +5), Wisconsin (Clinton +6), Florida (Clinton +2, Clinton +1), Nevada (tiedTrump +6), Colorado (tie, Clinton +3), Arizona (Trump +5, Trump +4), North Carolina (Clinton +3), Virginia (Trump +3, Clinton +5), Pennsylvania (Clinton +4, Clinton +2, Clinton +5, Clinton +4), Georgia (Trump +9), and New Hampshire (Trump +1).

    With less than a week to go, polling firms are pulling out all the stops in the swing states...and this latest batch of polls can do nothing but buoy the spirits of the Trump campaign. They've regained the momentum in Ohio and Nevada, seem to have beaten off the threat in Georgia, are coalescing in Arizona, and have even made inroads in Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire. He's still far behind, but is surging at a time when he absolutely has to show forward momentum.

    The Clinton camp, however, is on the defensive and while not panicking (yet), has to be concerned. Colorado is an issue, Florida is still anyone's guess, Michigan is a real concern, and they better hope the Trump-favorable polls in Virginia and New Hampshire were just outliers. On the positive side, North Carolina appears to be holding along with Pennsylvania.

    There were also new polls today from Oregon (Clinton +7), Missouri (Trump +15), Arkansas (Trump +20), and California (Clinton +20). Oregon is tightening up a but, but not enough to make anyone nervous on the Democratic side.

    Five changes to the map today: Georgia moves from "leaning" to "likely" Republican, both Nevada and Ohio switch from "leaning" Democrat to "leaning" Republican, and both Pennsylvania and Colorado move from "likely" to "leaning" Democratic.

    Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 316 to 222 Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

    Likely Republican

    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
    Texas: Trump up by 5.9%
    Alaska: Trump up by 4.6%
    Georgia: Trump up by 4.1%

    Leaning Republican

    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 2.4%
    Iowa: Trump up by 2.4%
    Utah: Trump up by 2%
    Arizona: Trump up by 1.6%
    Nevada: Trump up by 0.8%
    Ohio: Trump up by 0.7%

    Leaning Democrat

    Florida: Clinton up by 2.1%
    North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.5%
    Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 3.6%
    Colorado: Clinton up by 3.5%

    Likely Democrat

    Virginia: Clinton up by 4.3%
    New Hampshire: Clinton up by 4.6%
    Michigan: Clinton up by 4.9%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 5.1%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%

    Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    Associated Press -- Hacked emails show Clinton campaign communicated with State

    A State Department official appeared to coordinate with Hillary Clinton's nascent presidential campaign hours before the former secretary of state's exclusive use of private emails was first detailed in a news account last year, newly released hacked emails show.

    CNN -- Why Clinton's closing message is so somber

    Crisscrossing the country to win over undecided voters in battleground states over the past few days, Clinton has been warning voters about what a Trump presidency would look like, casting the Republican nominee as a sexist bully who is temperamentally unfit and unqualified to be commander in chief.

    Fox News -- FBI's Clinton Foundation investigation now 'a very high priority,' sources say

    The FBI's investigation into the Clinton Foundation that has been going on for more than a year has now taken a "very high priority," separate sources with intimate knowledge of the probe tell Fox News.

    Politico -- Trump teen rape accuser abruptly calls off news conference

    A woman who has filed federal lawsuits accusing Donald Trump of repeatedly raping her two decades ago, when she was 13, abruptly canceled a news conference Wednesday where she was to detail her extraordinary claims against the GOP presidential nominee.

    The Hill -- Republican voters coming home to Trump

    Republican voters are finally coming home to Donald Trump after months of flagging support threatened to put the White House out of reach. As Republicans face up to the specter of a Hillary Clinton presidency, Trump’s numbers are on the rise.
     

  • The Final Week: New battleground polls from Texas, Maine, Arizona, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, Virginia

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Wed, 02 Nov 2016 12:19:00 +0000

    STATE POLLING

    New battleground polls today from Texas (Trump +13), Maine CD2 (Clinton +2, Trump +3), Arizona (Trump +4), Ohio (Clinton +6), North Carolina (tied), Pennsylvania (Clinton +11, Trump +1), Michigan (Clinton +7), New Hampshire (Clinton +4), and Virginia (Clinton +4, Clinton +6).

    Less than a week to go, and while some had predicted a major polling fallout from the latest Clinton email kerfluffle, if anything it has helped the Democratic candidate. She not only raised $11 million in the three days after the FBI director's letter was released (her largest three-day haul since securing the Democratic nomination), but has actually improved her electoral lead, at least for today.

    The battleground map is consolidating, consisting of eight states with less than a 3% lead for either candidate: Georgia, Iowa, Utah, Arizona, Ohio, Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina. Add in Maine CD2, and the total represented by this group is 108 electoral votes. If Trump wins all eight of the core swing states (plus Maine CD2) and everything on his "likely" and "solid" list, he would have a total of 266 votes, four short of the number needed to win.

    The only chance Trump has to win from the current map is to flip Ohio, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina -- all of which are possible -- and then take just one of the "likely" Democratic states, such as Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan or New Hampshire, all of which are currently polling outside the base margin-of-error.

    To say this would be extremely difficult with six days left to campaign is a bit of an understatement. Trump has hampered himself with three problems: 1. substandard fundraising, 2. substandard get-out-the-vote ground operations, and 3. lack of consistent messaging. Clinton can outspend him 3-to-1 in the final week (and appears to be doing so), has a much better ground game, and is focused like a laser beam on messaging and where to make final campaign appearances.

    For all the tightness of the national tracking polls, which have both candidates within 2-3 points of each other, the electoral math is clear: this race is Hillary Clinton's to lose.

    And if she does, this would pretty much be the "stick a fork in and call it done" moment for current polling methodology.

    New polls today as well from from non-battleground states of Kentucky (Trump +17), Indiana (Trump +11), Missouri (Trump +14), Maine CD1 (Clinton +12, Clinton +6), Illinois (Clinton +12, Clinton +11), and California (Clinton +21). No real surprises here. Missouri had been the only state of this group even remotely in play, though not any longer.

    Also, two days ago, SurveyMonkey released a 50-state poll that has been added to the database. No real surprises there, just more data points (which is what we live on, so to speak).

    Four changes to the map today: Missouri moves from "likely" to "solid" Republican, Ohio switches from "leaning" Republican to "leaning" Democrat, Virginia moves from "solid" to "likely" Democratic, and Minnesota moves from "likely" to "solid" Democratic.

    Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 340 to 198. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
     
    Likely Republican

    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
    Texas: Trump up by 5.8%
    Alaska: Trump up by 4.6%

    Leaning Republican

    Georgia: Trump up by 2.8%
    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 2.4%
    Iowa: Trump up by 2%
    Utah: Trump up by 1.6%
    Arizona: Trump up by 1.5%

    Leaning Democrat

    Ohio: Clinton up by 0.4%
    Nevada: Clinton up by 0.8%
    Florida: Clinton up by 2%
    North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.8%

    Likely Democrat

    Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 4.6%
    Colorado: Clinton up by 5.2%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 5.2%
    Michigan: Clinton up by 5.5%
    New Hampshire: Clinton up by 6%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
    Virginia: Clinton up by 6.8%
     
    Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    Associated Press -- Clinton presses into Arizona, Trump focuses on Florida

    Hillary Clinton is pressing into reliably Republican Arizona as she tries to steal a state away from Donald Trump. Her rival, reinvigorated by the FBI's new email review, is laser-focused on Florida, a marquee battleground state he can't win the White House without.

    CNN -- FBI investigations into Trump-Russia ties yield little

    The FBI has been conducting multiple investigations of alleged connections between Russia and Donald Trump, his presidential campaign or its backers. But none so far have yielded proof of criminal connections between the parties.

    Fox News -- FBI releases documents on Bill Clinton's 2001 pardon of financier Rich

    Only days before the presidential election, the FBI released an archive of documents from a long-closed investigation into Bill Clinton's 2001 presidential pardon of a fugitive financier, prompting questions from Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign about its timing.

    Politico -- White nationalists plot Election Day show of force

    Neo-Nazi leader Andrew Anglin plans to muster thousands of poll-watchers across all 50 states. His partners at the alt-right website “the Right Stuff” are touting plans to set up hidden cameras at polling places in Philadelphia and hand out liquor and marijuana in the city’s “ghetto” on Election Day to induce residents to stay home.

    The Hill -- FBI spurs ‘total chaos’ in election’s final days

    Investigations. Leaks. Rumors. Innuendo. Welcome to the 2016 presidential campaign’s final days, which have been overwhelmed by the FBI’s handling of its investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server.
     

  • The Final Week: New polls from Pennsylvania, Georgia, New Hampshire, Michigan, Florida

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Tue, 01 Nov 2016 11:06:00 +0000

    STATE POLLING

    New polls today from Pennsylvania (Clinton +3), Georgia (Trump +7), New Hampshire (Clinton +7), Michigan (Clinton +6), and Florida (Clinton +2).

    One week from today, the polls will be open, Election Day will be upon us, and then we can finally put all this behind us. Okay, so maybe the third part is just wishful thinking...one gets the feeling that this election season may last a bit longer than normal. We'll wait and see.

    As it stands, it's a week out from Election Day and Hillary Clinton is sitting in about as positive a position a candidate can be in such an intensely partisan and politically polarized country as we have now. She has to be a bit concerned about her numbers dropping some in Pennsylvania, and I'm sure she'd love to be further ahead in Florida, but she can afford to be confidant moving into the final week of campaigning.

    Trump, on the other hand, is not in a very enviable position. He appears to be keeping Georgia red, which is the good news for the day, but it also appears that his hopes that the latest email kerfluffle would be the "October Surprise" that would vault him into the White House are being a bit dashed. There has been a bit of tightening in some of the swing state polls, but not enough to flip anything in a major way, at least not yet.

    We'll see over the next two days as the email story plays out whether or not there is any appreciable effect on the polling. However, I would be quite surprised to see much of a change, considering how few undecideds are actually left by this point.

    No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 216. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

    Likely Republican

    Missouri: Trump up by 6.8%
    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
    Texas: Trump up by 5.3%
    Alaska: Trump up by 4.1%

    Leaning Republican

    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.3%
    Utah: Trump up by 3%
    Georgia: Trump up by 3%
    Iowa: Trump up by 2.4%
    Ohio: Trump up by 0.6%
    Arizona: Trump up by 0.3%

    Leaning Democrat

    Nevada: Clinton up by 1.6%
    Florida: Clinton up by 1.8%
    North Carolina: Clinton up by 3.1%

    Likely Democrat

    Colorado: Clinton up by 4.5%
    Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.2%
    Michigan: Clinton up by 5.8%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.8%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
    Minnesota: Clinton up by 6.2%
    New Hampshire: Clinton up by 6.2%

    Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

    NATIONAL POLLING

    New polls today from NBC News (Clinton +6) and Morning Consult (Clinton +3).

    The current cumulative polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5%.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    Associated Press -- Obama caught in middle of unseemly spat over Clinton emails

    The latest clamor over Hillary Clinton's emails has put Barack Obama in a spot where no president wants to be: caught between his attorney general, his FBI director and his preferred White House successor.

    CNN -- Clinton camp: The cake's already baked

    Hillary Clinton's campaign is insisting it can't be thrown off course in the final week of the presidential race -- because it's already running on auto-pilot.

    Fox News -- Trump warns Clinton election would trigger ‘crisis’ amid email probe

    Donald Trump amplified warnings Monday that Hillary Clinton is “unfit” for office -- and claimed her election would mire the country in a “constitutional crisis” -- as he fought to gain an advantage after the discovery of new emails kick-started the FBI’s dormant Clinton server investigation.

    Politico -- Democrats' retort to FBI: What about Trump and Russia?

    Amid a potentially lethal frenzy about renewed FBI activity related to Hillary Clinton's email, the Clinton campaign and its Democratic allies worked furiously on Monday to change the subject to FBI interest in Donald Trump's ties to Russia.

    The Hill -- Trump used 'legally dubious' method to avoid paying taxes

    New documents found that GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump used a legally questionable tactic to avoid paying federal income taxes in the early 1990s, according to the New York Times.
     

  • Countdown To Election Day: New battleground polls from Missouri, Alaska, Maine, Utah, Ohio, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Michigan

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Mon, 31 Oct 2016 11:51:00 +0000

    STATE POLLING

    New battleground polls today from Missouri (Trump +5), Alaska (Trump +1Clinton +4), Maine CD2 (Clinton +3), Utah (Trump +2), Ohio (Clinton +1), Arizona (Trump +2Trump +2), Florida (Clinton +1, Clinton +4, Clinton +1, Clinton +2, Trump +4), North Carolina (Clinton +6, Clinton +2, Clinton +3), Colorado (Clinton +3), Pennsylvania (Clinton +8Clinton +4), New Hampshire (Clinton +9), Wisconsin (Clinton +6), and Michigan (Clinton +7 and Clinton +6).

    First off, you may be wondering why I have Alaska listed among the battleground states. The reason, quite surprisingly to just about everyone, is that it has indeed become one...and a remarkably close one at that. And this was based on two polls from different groups, which helps lend credence that it's not just an outlier result.

    Granted, I give the chances of Clinton flipping Alaska to be a remote as the state itself, and the 3 electoral votes up for grabs likely won't matter much either way, but the fact that a state which hasn't gone Democratic since the Johnson landslide of 1964 is now in play is quite remarkable.

    In Utah, Evan McMullin has pulled to within 2% of Trump, which means he has a more than decent change of being the first independent candidate since George Wallace in 1968 to win any electoral votes. And Utah is a state that has been as reliably Republican as Alaska, with does not bode well for the Trump campaign (and presages the upcoming battle for control and future direction of the Republican Party itself).

    Perusing through the rest of the polls -- which include five from Florida, three from North Carolina, and two each from Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Michigan -- we see a bit of last minute movement. Trump has regained the upper hand (just barely) in Arizona and brought Michigan back into play (also just barely), while Clinton has made Alaska a battleground (somewhat), and brought Missouri back into play (again, just barely).

    There's an overall tightening of the race, which is generally expected in the final week of any election as the few remaining undecideds finally admit to pollsters who they plan to vote for, but this weekend was also complicated by the furor over FBI Director James Comey's startling (and unprecedented) news about finding "new" Clinton emails on an aide's computer.

    The letter Comey sent to Congress has re-energized the Republican candidates across the board and sent Clinton and her allies into defense mode when they had planned to spend the final week riding the wave of expected victory and focus on helping downballot Democratic candidates. Whether or not anything ever comes out of the latest email "find" will likely not be known for months, but the effect wrought by Comey's awkwardly written letter is already being seen.

    There are also new polls today from Idaho (Trump +12), Louisiana (Trump +14), Maine CD1 (Clinton +20), and Vermont (Clinton +26), for those of you who are poll completists.

    Several changes to the map today: Alaska and Missouri move from "solid" to "likely" Republican, Arizona flips from "leaning" Democrat to "leaning" Republican, and Michigan moves from "solid" to "likely" Democratic.

    Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 216. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
     
    Likely Republican

    Missouri: Trump up by 6.8%
    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
    Texas: Trump up by 5.3%
    Alaska: Trump up by 4.1%

    Leaning Republican

    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.3%
    Utah: Trump up by 3%
    Iowa: Trump up by 2.4%
    Georgia: Trump up by 1.3%
    Ohio: Trump up by 0.6%
    Arizona: Trump up by 0.3%

    Leaning Democrat

    Florida: Clinton up by 1.3%
    Nevada: Clinton up by 1.6%
    North Carolina: Clinton up by 3.1%

    Likely Democrat

    Colorado: Clinton up by 4.5%
    Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.7%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.8%
    New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.9%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
    Minnesota: Clinton up by 6.2%
    Michigan: Clinton up by 6.5%
     
    Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

    NATIONAL POLLING

    New polls today from ABC News (Clinton +1) and IDP/TIPP (Clinton +2).

    The current cumulative polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 4%.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    Associated Press -- Clinton seeks to use new FBI inquiry as galvanizing force

    Even before FBI Director James Comey jolted the presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton and her advisers were on edge. Never mind that preference polls had Clinton ahead of Republican Donald Trump nationally and in nearly every battleground state.

    CNN -- FBI discovered Clinton-related emails weeks ago

    The FBI stumbled upon a trove of emails from one of Hillary Clinton's top aides weeks ago, law enforcement officials told CNN Sunday. But FBI Director James Comey didn't disclose the discovery until Friday, raising questions about why the information was kept under wraps and then released only days before the election.

    Fox News -- 34 percent 'less likely' to vote for Clinton after new email revelations

    A poll released Sunday shows more than 30 percent of likely voters say they are less inclined to support Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton after revelations Friday about the FBI reviewing newly-discovered emails potentially related to Clinton's tenure as secretary of state.

    Politico -- Reid: FBI director 'may have broken the law'

    FBI Director James Comey "may have broken the law" by showing favoritism to Republicans in announcing new investigative steps regarding Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid alleged on Sunday evening.

    The Hill -- FBI drama injects uncertainty into frantic final week of race

    The presidential campaign is entering its final full week amid high drama and volatility, as both sides grapple with the fallout from the FBI’s announcement that it is examining newly discovered emails that “appear to be pertinent” to an earlier investigation of Hillary Clinton.
     

  • Countdown To Election Day: New polls from Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Sun, 30 Oct 2016 11:00:00 +0000

    STATE POLLING

    New polls today from Florida (Clinton +1), Ohio (tied), North Carolina (Clinton +3), Nevada (Clinton +2), Wisconsin (Clinton +6), Pennsylvania (Clinton +6), and Minnesota (Clinton +10).

    With the exception of Ohio, Clinton is ahead in all of today's polls, but by much smaller margins than even just a week ago. Because, as has been said many many times before, a week in politics is an eternity, and everyone today seems focused on yet another Clinton email kerfluffle.

    Whether this will have any effect on the raced depends largely on whether there is actually any fire to all the smoke...and even then, with early voting well underway and an intensely partisan makeup of supporter for each candidate, chances are anything short of an email offering to sell the Washington Monument to Iran will have little actual effect on the election.

    As is stands, Florida has moved from "tied" to "leaning" Democrat by the thinnest of margins,. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 333 to 205.

    Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
     
    Likely Republican

    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
    Texas: Trump up by 5.3%

    Leaning Republican

    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
    Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
    Iowa: Trump up by 2.4%
    Ohio: Trump up by 1.4%
    Georgia: Trump up by 1.3%

    Leaning Democrat

    Florida: Clinton up by 0.1%
    Arizona: Clinton up by 0.5%
    Nevada: Clinton up by 1.2%
    North Carolina: Clinton up by 3%

    Likely Democrat

    Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.3%
    Colorado: Clinton up by 5.7%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.8%
    Minnesota: Clinton up by 6.2%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6.4%
    New Hampshire: Clinton up by 6.5%
     
    Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia

    NATIONAL POLLING

    New polls today from ABC News (Clinton +2) and IDB/TIPP (Clinton +4).

    The current cumulative polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.4%.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    Associated Press -- Clinton pushes back against 'unprecedented' new FBI review

    Hillary Clinton lashed out Saturday at the FBI's handling of a new email review, leading a chorus of Democratic leaders who declared the bureau's actions just days before the election "unprecedented" and "deeply troubling."

    CNN -- Comey notified Congress of email probe despite DOJ concerns

    Attorney General Loretta Lynch and Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates disagreed with FBI Director James Comey's decision to notify Congress about his bureau's review of emails potentially related to Hillary Clinton's personal server, law enforcement officials familiar with the discussion said.

    Fox News -- FBI revisiting Clinton emails just latest in long history of 'October Surprises'

    We’ve seen this all before. Everyone is apoplectic about how crazy the presidential campaign is. How crazy the congressional campaigns are. And then the dramatic FBI email news just days before the election.

    Politico -- Democrats declare open season on Jim Comey

    Hillary Clinton and her aides and allies forcefully criticized FBI Director James Comey on Saturday, demanding that he release more information about the bureau’s discovery of Clinton-related emails and criticizing him for bad timing.

    The Hill -- Justice Dept. warned FBI against letter on Clinton emails

    FBI Director James Comey went against the wishes of Attorney General Loretta Lynch when he sent a letter to lawmakers Friday notifying them that the agency was reviewing new emails “pertinent” to the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server.
     

  • Countdown To Election Day: New battleground polls from Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Sat, 29 Oct 2016 10:43:00 +0000

    STATE POLLING

    Yes, there are so many polls out today, that we had to break them down into battleground and non-battleground categories.

    From the battleground states, we have new polls today from Nevada (tied), Arizona (Trump +1), Georgia (Trump +1), Florida (Clinton +3), New Hampshire (Clinton +3), North Carolina (Clinton +3), Pennsylvania (Clinton +5), New Mexico (Clinton +5), Colorado (Clinton +7), and two from Iowa (tiedTrump +3).


    Breaking down the new polls, the Wild West looks to be living up to its reputation, as Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico all appear to be very close. Add in Utah, which has been polling very close in a three-way race, along with a still-competitive Colorado, and it could be a very close finish out on the frontier. 

    Down South, to no surprise, Florida and North Carolina will be going down to the wire. What is surprising is that Georgia remains very close. The generally Republican outer suburbs of Atlanta may be the deciding factor for the Peach State.

    And what's going on in New Hampshire? Clinton has gone from a +15 poll to a +3 poll in just the past few weeks. Those four electoral votes look to be a tougher fight than Clinton had originally expected. Same thing is going, in reverse, in Iowa, as the Trump camp must be wondering what happened to their once steady lead in the Hawkeye State.

    We also have new polls from Idaho (Trump +19), Arkansas (Trump +16), Indiana (Trump +14), Alabama (Trump +12), Missouri (Trump +11), Alaska (Trump +12), Connecticut (Clinton +13), Delaware (Clinton +16), Illinois (Clinton +17), Hawaii (Clinton +18), California (Clinton +23), District of Columbia (Clinton +82), and two from Virginia (Clinton +12Clinton +7).

    Nothing all that unusual here: Trump is leading where Republicans generally lead, Clinton is leading where Democrats generally lead. It is nice, however, to get some new polls from Alaska, Hawaii and the District of Columbia. The results are what we expected, it's just that they don't get polled very often, and we like having fresh data.

    Three changes to the map today: Missouri moves from "likely" to "solid" Republican, Florida moves from "leaning" Republican to "tied", and New Hampshire moves from "solid" to "leaning" Democrat. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 304 to 205. 

    Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
      
    Likely Republican
     
    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
    Texas: Trump up by 5.3%
     
    Leaning Republican
     
    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
    Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
    Iowa: Trump up by 2.4%
    Ohio: Trump up by 1.7%
    Georgia: Trump up by 1.3%
     
    Tied
     
    Florida
     
    Leaning Democrat
     
    Arizona: Clinton up by 0.5%
    Nevada: Clinton up by 1.6%
    North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.9%
     
    Likely Democrat
     
    Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.5%
    Minnesota: Clinton up by 5.6%
    Colorado: Clinton up by 5.7%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.8%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
    New Hampshire: Clinton up by 6.5%
      
    Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

    NATIONAL POLLING

    New poll today from ABC News that has Clinton up +4. leading Trump 48% to 44%, with Johnson at 4%, and Stein at 1%.

    The current cumulative polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 6.1%.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    Associated Press -- Clinton tries to quell resurgent email issue late in race

     For more than a year, Hillary Clinton has been a reluctant participant in the email controversy that has dogged her campaign, responding defensively to inquiries — and often only when there's a political imperative to do so.

    CNN -- The bizarre day that blunted Clinton's good mood

    illary Clinton was riding high. Then Anthony Weiner resurfaced. A string of strong swing state polls, an expanding battleground map and the end of the presidential debates had Clinton -- and her aides -- feeling good about the final days of the campaign.

    Fox News -- FBI reopens Clinton probe after new emails found in Anthony Weiner case

    Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton called on the FBI Friday to release all information in its renewed investigation into her use of a private server while secretary of state after discovering new emails – apparently during the probe of former Rep. Anthony Weiner’s sexting – in a stunning turn of events just days before the presidential election.

    Politico -- Comey's disclosure shocks former prosecutors

    James Comey's surprise announcement that investigators are examining new evidence in the probe of Hillary Clinton's email server put the FBI director back under a harsh spotlight, reigniting criticism of his unusual decision to discuss the high-profile case in front of the media and two congressional committees.

    The Hill -- Clinton demands 'full and complete facts' from FBI

    Hillary Clinton called on the FBI to release more information about newly uncovered emails connected to the investigation into her private server, addressing the issue for the first time at a press conference.
     

  • Countdown To Election Day: New polls from Louisiana, Missouri, Utah, Georgia, Iowa, Arizona, Washington, California, Massachusetts, Ohio, Nevada, Michigan, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Fri, 28 Oct 2016 12:25:00 +0000

    STATE POLLING

    New polls today from Louisiana (Trump +15), Missouri (Trump +5), Utah (Trump +4), Georgia (Trump +1), Iowa (tied), Arizona (Clinton +2), Washington (Clinton +14), California (Clinton +26), Massachusetts (Clinton +32), two from Ohio (Trump +2 and Trump +3). two from Nevada (Clinton +1 and Clinton +2), two from Michigan (Clinton +7 and Clinton +6), two from Virginia (Clinton +12 and Clinton +7), three from Pennsylvania (Clinton +8Clinton +7Clinton +7), three from New Hampshire (Clinton +9Clinton +5Clinton +8), four from Florida (Trump +3Trump +6Clinton +4tied), and five from North Carolina (Clinton +4Clinton +2Clinton +2Clinton +7Clinton +3).

    Yeah, that's a whole lot of polling. As one of my favorite T-shirts says, "Stand back! I'm about to do math!" And what a lot of math it is...

    First of, let's get the two big results out of the way: we finally have polls from Ohio, and some very interesting results from Florida. In Ohio, Trump has retaken the lead, but only by a slim margin. That's very important to his campaign. But what's really going to make the folks in Trump Tower happy today are the results from Florida, where he has overtaken his Democratic rival.

    And while the above results are indeed good news for the Trump campaign, there are also some troubling polls to contend with, including Utah and Georgia still being far too competitive for comfort, and Missouri apparently coming into play a bit.

    Plus, Clinton is moving Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire even further out of reach, which cuts off the vast majority of his paths to victory, and appears to be maintaining her lead in North Carolina.

    Three changes to the map today: Florida moves from "leaning" Democrat to "leaning" Republican, Ohio moves from "tied" to "leaning" Republican, and Missouri moves for "solid" to "likely" Republican . Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 304 to 234.

    Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
     
    Likely Republican

    Missouri: Trump up by 6.6%
    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
    Texas: Trump up by 5.3%

    Leaning Republican

    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
    Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
    Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
    Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
    Ohio: Trump up by 1.7%
    Florida: Trump up by 1%

    Leaning Democrat

    Arizona: Clinton up by 0.7%
    Nevada: Clinton up by 1.8%
    North Carolina: Clinton up by 3.2%

    Likely Democrat

    Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.8%
    Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
    Minnesota: Clinton up by 5.6%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%

    Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.


    NATIONAL POLLING

    New polls today from Pew Research (Clinton +6), ABC News (Clinton +6), Gravis (Clinton +1), and The Economist (Clinton +5).

    The current cumulative polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 6.9%.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    Associated Press -- Clinton rallies with Mrs. Obama as Trump alleges corruption

    Aiming to deliver a knockout blow to Donald Trump's staggering presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton turned to popular first lady Michelle Obama to rally voters in North Carolina.

    CNN -- Donald Trump's tough path to the White House

    Donald Trump got a morale boost this week -- but it likely won't be enough to propel him to the White House. After weeks of devastating headlines, the Republican nominee seemed to give himself a break.

    Fox News -- Clinton more than doubles her money edge over Trump

    Hillary Clinton entered the final phase of her presidential bid with a resounding campaign cash advantage over Donald Trump. New fundraising reports show her campaign and joint accounts with Democrats had $153 million in the bank as of last week.

    Politico -- Clinton eyes Biden for secretary of state

    Joe Biden is at the top of the internal short list Hillary Clinton’s transition team is preparing for her pick to be secretary of state, a source familiar with the planning tells POLITICO.

    The Hill -- Clinton fails to contain the damage from email leaks

    Hillary Clinton has failed to effectively contain the damage from the release of thousands of campaign chairman John Podesta’s personal emails, giving new ammunition to Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.
     

  • Countdown To Election Day: New polls from Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Texas, Montana, New Hampshire

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Thu, 27 Oct 2016 11:33:00 +0000

    STATE POLLING

    New polls today from Florida (Trump +2), North Carolina (Clinton +1), Nevada (tied), Texas (Trump +7), Montana (Trump +16), and two from New Hampshire (Clinton +9 and Clinton +4).

    Another status quo day. Florida, North Carolina and Nevada all remain very close, New Hampshire appears to be solidifying for Clinton, and some slight sense of historical normalcy is returning to Texas (though it remains dark pink on the map).

    What has been interesting is we haven't seen any (legitimate) polling from Ohio in a number of days, and the average of the last ten polls has the state exactly tied. Hopefully, we'll get some new polling info from there within the next day or so.

    And, by way of explanation, my comment about "legitimate" polls is related to a recent rash of polls from unknown or previously unheard of organizations that all contain results way outside the statistical norm. This is, unfortunately, not that unheard of, and is an obvious attempt to skew the poll averaging sites to make a race and/or candidate appear to be more competitive.

    What is unfortunate is the dubious polls are favoring the same candidate who has been claiming for some time that polling is fraudulent and not to be believed. Perhaps he's correct, just not in the way he's been implying.

    And if your'e ever curious about a specific organization, Nate Silver has a handy webpage that ranks all the polling firms by accuracy and political lean. In the most recent case, the "shocking new poll results" came from a company that isn't even on Silver's list. And it's a long list.

    No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 333 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

    Likely Republican

    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
    Texas: Trump up by 5.3%

    Leaning Republican

    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
    Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
    Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
    Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%

    Tied

    Ohio

    Leaning Democrat

    Arizona: Clinton up by 0.5%
    Florida: Clinton up by 15%
    Nevada: Clinton up by 2.9%
    North Carolina: Clinton up by 3%

    Likely Democrat

    Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.2%
    Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
    Minnesota: Clinton up by 5.6%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%

    Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

    NATIONAL POLLING

    New polls today from the Associated Press (Clinton +14), ABC News (Clinton +9), Fox News (Clinton +3), Reuters (Clinton +4), and USA Today (Clinton +9).

    Five polls, all showing Clinton ahead, but ranging from 3 to 14 points in the lead. The bad news: someone is really far off. The good news: national polling doesn't matter other than to give a general snapshot of the overall race.

    The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 8.5%.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    Associated Press -- Police investigate destruction of Trump's Hollywood star

    Los Angeles police are investigating a pre-dawn attack that destroyed Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame less than two weeks before the election.

    CNN -- New DC routine: Wake up, search WikiLeaks, wince

    It's shaping up to be a new part of the morning routine for DC's elite: Grab coffee, skim the news and type your name into WikiLeaks to see what damage the day's hacked emails might hold for you.

    Fox News -- Trump touts 'new deal for black America' 

    Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump unveiled what he called a “New Deal for black America” and revealed a handful of new proposals aimed at revitalizing impoverished urban areas on Wednesday in hope to sway minority voters.

    Politico -- Cruz: GOP may block Supreme Court nominees indefinitely

    In a vintage return to his confrontational style, Sen. Ted Cruz indicated that Republicans could seek to block a Democratic president from filling the vacant Supreme Court seat indefinitely.

    The Hill -- Clinton faces new challenges on ObamaCare

    Responding to the uproar over ObamaCare premium hikes, Hillary Clinton on Tuesday promised: “We’re going to make changes to fix problems like that.” The question is: What changes could actually get through Congress?
     

  • Countdown To Election Day: New polls from Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Minnesota, Indiana, Alabama, Arkansas, South Dakota, Idaho

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Wed, 26 Oct 2016 11:24:00 +0000

    STATE POLLING

    New polls today from Arizona (Trump +1), Florida (Clinton +3), North Carolina (Clinton +7), Minnesota (Clinton +8), Indiana (Trump +11), Alabama (Trump +14), Arkansas (Trump +23), South Dakota (Trump +7), and Idaho (Trump +29).

    Less than two weeks to go, and we see a tale of two very different paths to victory. On the Democratic side, between "solid" and "likely" states, Hillary Clinton already has more than the 270 electoral votes she needs to claim the White House. On the Republican side, with Florida and North Carolina slipping away, and Virginia and Pennsylvania likely out of reach, the path looks all but non-existent for Donald Trump.

    Adding salt to Trump's electoral map wounds, Arizona is now an out-and-out battleground that no one at the RNC ever thought would be in play. It's getting so gloomy for the Republican side, even South Dakota (!) only has a single digit lead for Trump. By comparison, Romney won the state in 2012 by just under twenty points. To be up only 7% in a state that has gone Democratic just three times since 1900 is bad no matter how you look at it.

    But it's not all bad news. Trump and the GOP still have the Deep South and most of the Midwest. Which is most likely were the majority of viewers of the upcoming "Trump News Network" will be coming from.

    One change to the map today, Arizona has moved from "tied" to "leaning Democrat". Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 333 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
     
    Likely Republican

    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
    Texas: Trump up by 4.4%

    Leaning Republican

    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
    Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
    Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
    Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%

    Tied

    Ohio

    Leaning Democrat

    Arizona: Clinton up by 0.5%
    Florida: Clinton up by 2.6%
    North Carolina: Clinton up by 3.1%
    Nevada: Clinton up by 3.5%

    Likely Democrat

    Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.2%
    Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
    Minnesota: Clinton up by 5.6%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%

    Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

    NATIONAL POLLING

    New polls today from ABC News and NBC News.

    ABC News has Clinton up +12, leading Trump 50% to 38%, with Johnson at 5%, and Stein at 2%. Meanwhile, NBC News shows the race much closer, with Clinton up +5, leading Trump 46% to 41%, with Johnson at 7%, and Stein at 3%.

    To say it's unusual at this point of the campaign season for two of the most prestigious news organizations, who have decades of polling experience behind them, to be seven points apart is a bit of an understatement. As it is, the current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7.2%.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    Associated Press -- Trump touts hotel as Pence heads to Utah in waning days

    Donald Trump is taking a break from campaigning Wednesday to formally open his new hotel in Washington, while dispatching his running mate to play political defense in Utah — which hasn't backed a Democrat for president in 52 years.

    CNN -- Republicans go on offense over Obamacare

    Obamacare's woes are back -- just two weeks before Election Day. The government said Monday that premiums for Obamacare's benchmark plan are set to rise an average of 22% next year.

    Fox News -- Trump cuts off fundraising events for Republican Party

    Donald Trump's campaign has ended fundraising events meant to support the Republican Party's get-out-the-vote efforts in next month's elections.

    Politico -- Trump campaign turns infomercial

    Donald Trump has less than two weeks left in his presidential campaign, but his closing argument sounds as much about his business interests as his electoral ones.

    The Hill -- Senior House Republicans fighting for their lives 

    Two weeks ahead of the Nov. 8 elections, a handful of hardened House Republicans find themselves in a rare position: They’re fighting for their political lives.
     

  • The Final Two Weeks: New polls from Michigan, Washington, North Carolina, Nevada

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Tue, 25 Oct 2016 11:17:00 +0000

    STATE POLLING

    New polls today from Michigan (Clinton +8), Washington (Clinton +17), two from North Carolina (Clinton +1 and Clinton +3), and two from Nevada (Clinton +7 and Clinton +4).

    Two weeks from today, the polls will open across the nation and by the end of the evening (likely sooner), we will know who our next President will be. Whether the losing candidate will accept the results, however, is still very much up in the air.

    And judging from the fact that not once since this blog was started (and even earlier, when I was posting my data at Fark Politics) has Trump had a lead in the electoral voting. And from the latest week of polls, it appears from where I sit that the question isn't whether Hillary Clinton will win, but by how much. As in, will it be reasonably close or will it be a landslide...and my math is leaning towards landslide.

    As for today's polls, no surprises in Michigan, Washington, or North Carolina. The first two are solidly blue, and the Tar Heel State is going to be razor-thin right up to the bitter end. The (slight) surprise is that Clinton appears to be starting to pull away in Nevada, a state that has accurately predicted the winner every election since 1980.

    No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
     
    Likely Republican

    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
    Texas: Trump up by 4.4%

    Leaning Republican

    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
    Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
    Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
    Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%

    Tied

    Arizona
    Ohio

    Leaning Democrat

    North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.1%
    Florida: Clinton up by 2.2%
    Nevada: Clinton up by 3.5%

    Likely Democrat

    Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.2%
    Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
    Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%

    Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

    NATIONAL POLLING

    New poll today from CNN/ORC that has Clinton ahead by 5, leading Trump 49% to 44%, with Johnson at 3%, and Stein at 2%. Head-to-head, Clinton leads Trump 51% to 45%.

    There's also a poll from Centre College, which has been doing polling for some time, that has a similar result: Clinton up by 5, leading Trump 45% to 40%, with Johnson at 6%, and Stein at 1%.

    The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 6.7%.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    Associated Press -- Trump, with electoral path narrowing, insists he's 'winning'

    Even as his path to the presidency narrows, a defiant Donald Trump is insisting he is "winning" and urging his supporters to defy what he is calling an establishment conspiracy to deny the White House to his populist movement.

    CNN -- Election law doesn't care if Trump (or Clinton) ever concede

    The prospect of election night drama seems to dwindle with each new round of polling. But Donald Trump, perhaps trying to author a campaign cliffhanger, is determined to provide Americans with at least a measure of "suspense" on November 8.

    Fox News -- Early voting suggests tight race in key states

    Hillary Clinton’s campaign is touting some “eye-popping” advantages in early voting, in an apparent effort to energize Democratic voters, but preliminary figures suggest the race remains tighter than her aides acknowledge.

    Politico -- Trump’s love affair with the polls is over

    Donald Trump began and ended his rally here by recognizing a tall man standing in the top row of a packed outdoor amphitheater dressed as Abraham Lincoln, pointing up to the silhouette of “Honest Abe’s” famous stovepipe hat against the afternoon sky.

    The Hill -- War over polls intensifies

    Want a tough job? Trying being a pollster two weeks before Election Day. Donald Trump is ripping pollsters and the media, arguing the surveys are biased against him because many include too many Democrats in their sampling surveys.
     

  • 14 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Texas, Florida

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Mon, 24 Oct 2016 10:36:00 +0000

    STATE POLLING

    New polls today from Texas (Trump +3) and Florida (Clinton +3).

    There are two weeks of campaigning left, and then we go to the polls (at least, those who haven't already early voted). Considering this election season feels like it started back around 2012, it's almost hard to believe we're this close to the finish line.

    And as it stands, the GOP has to be quietly looking in the mirror every morning and asking themselves how did they get here. And not it a good way. Waking up two weeks before Election Day to find their hated opponent, Hillary Clinton, leading in must-win Florida and within the margin of error in Texas, of all states, has to be some sort of nightmare.

    Then again, if this race has proven one thing, it's that all the "conventional wisdom" of how campaigns are supposed to play out are completely out the door.

    In other words, hold on to your hat, it's going to be a wild finish.

    No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
     
    Likely Republican

    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
    Texas: Trump up by 4.7%

    Leaning Republican

    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
    Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
    Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
    Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%

    Tied

    Arizona
    Ohio

    Leaning Democrat

    Nevada: Clinton up by 2%
    Florida: Clinton up by 2.7%
    North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.9%

    Likely Democrat

    Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.2%
    Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
    Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%

    Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

    NATIONAL POLLING

    New poll today from ABC News that has Clinton ahead of Trump by 12%, leading 50% to 38%, with Johnson at 5% and Stein at 2%. In a head-to-head match-up, Clinton has a 53% to 41% lead, so they are basically splitting the third-party candidate support.

    The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7.2%.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    Associated Press -- With email dumps, WikiLeaks tests power of full transparency

    WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange first outlined the hypothesis nearly a decade ago: Can total transparency defeat an entrenched group of insiders?

    CNN -- The tumultuous 2016 campaign is in a sudden limbo

    The most dramatic and unpredictable presidential election in decades is suddenly slipping into a strange state of suspended animation.

    Fox News -- Clinton camp denies looking to Senate races, red states to cap foregone victory

    The Clinton campaign on Sunday denied assertions that it thinks the White House race is now a lock and has moved toward trying for a blowout victory over Republican rival Donald Trump while attempting to take control of the Senate.

    Politico -- Trump’s window is closing

    With two weeks to go, Donald Trump’s path to an Election Night win is almost entirely closed. Hillary Clinton enters the final 15 days of the race safely ahead in states worth more than 270 electoral votes.

    The Hill -- Trump's growth projections leave economists in disbelief

    Economists are dubious of Donald Trump’s claim that he could more than triple economic growth if elected president. Trump has repeatedly blasted the gross domestic product (GDP) numbers under President Obama as pathetically low, promising he would change the trajectory by building a “tremendous economic machine.”
     

  • 15 Days Till Election Day: New poll from Michigan

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Sun, 23 Oct 2016 12:26:00 +0000

    STATE POLLING

    New poll today from Michigan (Clinton +5).

    Yep, that's it, just one state. And we're not really sure what to make of this poll, either. The polling firm, Marketing Resource Group, only rates a C+ from Nate Silver, with an 11% error margin and only a 17% success rate for calling elections. And even if their poll is right on the money, Michigan is still safely in the "Solid Democrat" column.

    No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
     
    Likely Republican

    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
    Texas: Trump up by 4.4%

    Leaning Republican

    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
    Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
    Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
    Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%

    Tied

    Arizona
    Ohio

    Leaning Democrat

    Nevada: Clinton up by 2%
    Florida: Clinton up by 2.2%
    North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.9%

    Likely Democrat

    Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.2%
    Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
    Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%

    Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

    NATIONAL POLLING

    No new national polls today.

    The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7%.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    Associated Press -- Trump's lawsuit threat against accusers overshadows agenda

    Donald Trump is laying out an ambitious agenda for his first 100 days as president but pointedly noting that he will find time to sue the numerous women who have accused him of groping and other unwanted sexual behavior.

    CNN -- Trump Jr.: father's 2005 hot mic comments are 'a fact of life'

    Donald Trump Jr. says conversations like the one his father had in 2005 where he boasted about forcing himself on women and grabbing their genitals are "a fact of life."

    Fox News -- Trump opposes AT&T-Time Warner deal

    Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said Saturday he opposes the $85 billion merger between AT&T and Time Warner, arguing the major media deal would result in “too much concentration of power” and vowing if elected to undo the deal.

    Politico -- Log Cabin Republicans board votes against endorsing Trump

    The board of the nation’s largest group of LGBT Republicans has voted to not endorse Donald Trump, in a contentious decision that did not reflect the preference of many of its chapters.

    The Hill -- Could President Hillary heal a divided nation?

    If she wins the White House, Hillary Clinton will face the daunting task of healing the national divisions exposed by a vicious campaign season. Whether Clinton could knit the nation back together is an open question.
     

  • 16 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Maine, Louisiana, Virginia, Florida, Indiana, Utah, Missouri, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Georgia

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Sat, 22 Oct 2016 12:01:00 +0000

    STATE POLLING

    New polls today from Maine CD1 (Clinton +10) and Maine CD 2 (Clinton +1), Louisiana (Trump +20), Virginia (Clinton +12), Florida (Clinton +4), Indiana (Trump +6), Utah (Trump +3), Missouri (Trump +8), Pennsylvania (Clinton +5), New Hampshire (Clinton +8), and three from Georgia (Trump +4, Trump +2, Trump +4).

    Another healthy dose of polling that has a few things stand out.

    First, Pennsylvania had for a while looked to be all but sewn up for Team Clinton. Then "the tape" dropped...and ever since then, the race has been tightening up in the Keystone State. Hey, no one ever said politics makes sense. This is a state Trump absolutely has to have if he has any chance at winning this race, so this is good news for him at a time when any good news is extremely welcome.

    On the flip side, Team Clinton has be enjoying what's happening in Georgia. Yes, Trump maintains his lead, but it's close enough that Clinton and supportive PACs are dropping an increasing amount of money into the Peach State in the hope to steal one right out of the Deep South.

    And for a while it's looked like Trump might snag one of Maine's EV's by taking the more rural 2nd Congressional District. And while he's still leading there, it's a lot closer than it had been, so it's looking less likely as we get closer to Election Day.

    One change to the map today: Maine CD2 moves from "likely" to "leaning" Republican. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

    Likely Republican

    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
    Texas: Trump up by 4.4%

    Leaning Republican

    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
    Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
    Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
    Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%

    Tied

    Arizona
    Ohio

    Leaning Democrat

    Nevada: Clinton up by 2%
    Florida: Clinton up by 2.2%
    North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.9%

    Likely Democrat

    Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.2%
    Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
    Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%

    Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

    NATIONAL POLLING

    No new national polls today.

    The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7%.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    Associated Press -- Clinton campaign ponders 'what if' Trump doesn't concede

    Hillary Clinton's campaign is increasingly preparing for the possibility that Donald Trump may never concede the presidential election should she win, a development that could enormously complicate the crucial early weeks of her preparations to take office.

    CNN -- Trump to make 'closing argument,' lay out plan for first 100 days

    Donald Trump will lay out his plans for the first 100 days of his presidency in a speech Saturday that the Republican nominee's senior campaign aides are billing as his "closing argument" in the presidential race.

    Fox News -- Clinton lectured State Dept. staff on cybersecurity in 2010 video

    Despite conducting her own government business through a personal “homebrew” server while secretary of state, Hillary Clinton is seen in a newly obtained video lecturing her staff of their “special duty” to recognize the importance of cybersecurity.

    Politico -- Economists: A Trump win would tank the markets

    Wall Street is set up for a major crash if Donald Trump shocks the world on Election Day and wins the White House. New research out on Friday suggests that financial markets strongly prefer a Hillary Clinton presidency and could react with panicked selling should Trump defy the polls and deliver a shocking upset on Nov. 8.

    The Hill -- State Department releases new batch of Clinton emails

    The State Department on Friday released 112 of the 15,000 Hillary Clinton emails uncovered by the FBI during its investigation into the former secretary of State’s personal email server.  Many of the documents — comprising about 240 pages — are “near duplicates” of documents Clinton provided to the State Department in 2014 and have already been made public, according to the agency.
     

  • 17 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Ohio, Oregon, Utah, Michigan

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Fri, 21 Oct 2016 11:00:00 +0000

    STATE POLLING

    New polls today from Ohio (tied), Oregon (Clinton +10), Utah (Trump +1), and Michigan (Clinton +13).

    Just a handful of polls today, but each interesting in their own way.

    Ohio has long been considered one of the bellwether swing states, as in "so goes Ohio, so goes the White House". In the last 18 elections, the only candidate to win Ohio and not win the White House was Richard Nixon in 1960. And while it doesn't have the electoral clout it once had (it's lost about a third of its electoral strength in the past 50 years), it's still a state that gets a lot of attention from candidates and the media. And at this point, it's a dead heat.

    Oregon is indicative of the West Coast, which has been solidly blue for some time and shows no sign of changing this time around. One of the reasons even a generic Republican candidate starts off in a bit of a hole is the block of 74 EV's from Washington, Oregon, and California, all part of the "Great Blue Wall" the Democrats have built up over the past several elections. It's to the point now that they only time an Oregonian ever sees a candidate is during the primaries. On the positive side, their mailboxes aren't overflowing with direct mailers and their local TV isn't overrun with SuperPAC and campaign ads.

    Utah is a state a lot of people have been writing a lot about, for reasons that are both unusual and quite fascinating from a purely political standpoint. The strong Mormon presence in the state, somewhere around two-thirds of the voting population, has been a large part of why Utah has voted Republican in 15 of the last 16 elections (the exception being Lyndon Johnson in 1964). Yet, this time around, their deeply held beliefs do not line up with Trump, which has opened to door to independent (and Mormon) candidate Even McMullin. It's a three-way race that could go to any one of the three according to the recent polling trends.

    And Michigan represents how Trump's initial "Rust Belt" strategy has all but failed him. His original plan was to campaign heavily in the states that have been hit hard by manufacturing job losses -- Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania -- where he felt he would have strong support from the Republican base. That strategy appears to have maintained Indiana (which went for Obama in 2008 then flipped to Romney in 2012), and we've already covered Ohio, but it has been largely ineffective in Illinois Michigan, and Pennsylvania, states that Trump absolutely needed to have any chance to win.

    One change to the map today: Utah moves from "likely" to "leaning" Republican. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

    Likely Republican

    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.3%
    Texas: Trump up by 4.4%

    Leaning Republican

    Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
    Utah: Trump up by 3.5%
    Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%

    Tied

    Arizona
    Ohio

    Leaning Democrat

    Florida: Clinton up by 2%
    Nevada: Clinton up by 2%
    North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.9%

    Likely Democrat

    Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
    Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
    Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 6%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%

    Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

    NATIONAL POLLING

    No new national polls today.

    The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7%.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    Associated Press -- Trump, Clinton spending furiously as Election Day nears

    Defying his notorious stinginess, Donald Trump more than doubled his campaign spending last month compared to August. He burned through roughly $70 million as his standing in polls and among fellow Republicans dropped. His Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, spent even more — almost $83 million.

    CNN -- Trump delivers harsh remarks on Clinton at charity dinner

    Donald Trump abandoned decades of tradition Thursday night with a tough takedown of Hillary Clinton at an annual charity dinner that prompted booing of the Republican presidential nominee.

    Fox News -- Trump defends, clarifies wait-and-see approach on election results

    Donald Trump on Thursday defended his reluctance at the final presidential debate to declare he’d accept the results of the Nov. 8 election no matter what, saying he reserves the  right to contest a “questionable result” – while clarifying that he would accept a “clear election result.”

    Politico -- Trump pledges to accept election results — ‘if I win’

    Donald Trump will accept the outcome on Nov. 8 — “if I win,” the Republican presidential nominee declared Thursday, mocking critics who have scolded him for suggesting he may not concede the election to Hillary Clinton if he loses.

    The Hill -- Trump booed at Al Smith dinner

    Donald Trump's appearance at Thursday night's charity event took a tough turn as the crowd repeatedly booed the GOP nominee for his sharp-edged jokes about his rival Hillary Clinton. While the New York fundraiser for Catholic charities always includes the two candidates getting laughs at their rival’s expense, Trump’s lines stuck closely to his campaign’s antagonistic rhetoric after an initially positive start.
       

  • 18 Days Till Election Day: 29 new state polls

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Thu, 20 Oct 2016 10:32:00 +0000

    STATE POLLING

    New polls from Kansas (Trump +11), Missouri (Trump +8), Iowa (Trump +5), Kentucky (Trump +4), Nevada (Trump +4), Ohio (Trump +3), Florida (Trump +2), Texas (Trump +2), Colorado (Clinton +7), Michigan (Clinton +8), New Mexico (Clinton +8), Virginia (Clinton +11), New York (Clinton + 24), Vermont (Clinton +28), two from Georgia (Trump +3 and Clinton +4), two from Wisconsin (Clinton +7 and Clinton +5), two from Pennsylvania (Clinton +4 and Clinton +6), three from Arizona (Clinton +5Trump +3, and Clinton +2), three from North Carolina (Clinton +2Clinton +6, and Clinton +2), three from New Hampshire (Clinton +15Clinton +11, and Clinton +8), and then there's Utah (McMullin +4),

    Yes, that's a lot of new polls. Three doubles, three triples, and a new player in Utah (mathematically speaking, that is). And lots of interesting results to digest.

    First of all, Evan McMullin is now leading a poll in Utah for the first time this year. While statistically Trump still has a lead in the state, the trending numbers show a very good chance that McMullin could win the state and claim Utah's six electoral votes. As has been noted here before, this would be first time an independent candidate won a state since George Wallace in 1968. It would also be devastating to the Trump campaign, which needs every electoral vote that can scrounge up.

    And remember yesterday's alarm bells over Texas? Well, they just go louder, as Trump continues to fall in the Lone State State. He's also seeing his support drop in other traditionally red states such as Missouri and Kentucky, which is real cause for concern. Digging deep into the polling reports, we're seeing a growing number of Republicans who are planning to not vote this time around. They don't like Clinton at all, but they just can't justify voting for Trump in spite of the (R) next to his name on the ballot. This is the worst-case scenario for the RNC, who has to worry about losing control of the Senate and, while still unlikely, a slowly growing fear of losing the House as well.

    And yet, at the same time, Trump is turning things around in two of the biggest battleground states, Ohio and Florida. These are states he absolutely has to win if he is to have any chance of victory, or at least of not being the recipient of a soul-crushing landslide defeat. This also means the direct mail and television advertising people in both states will be very busy the next couple of weeks.

    And while the Clinton folks likely aren't all that happy with Ohio and Florida (and a bit of concern over Pennsylvania slipping backwards), they have to be pleased with their progress in Arizona and Georgia, two states that almost no one thought would be in play at the beginning of the year. New Hampshire also appears to have reaffirmed their blue state status after a summer of concern in Democratic circles. And one would suspect the Clinton strategists are highly amused by Utah, as well.


    Several changes to the map today. On the Republican side, Utah moves from "solid" to "likely"and Georgia moves from "likely" to "leaning". On the Democratic side, Pennsylvania moves from "solid" to "likely" while New Hampshire moves from "leaning" to "solid". And in a rarity, we have two states who are now exactly tied: Arizona and Ohio. 

    With all the changes, Clinton now has a projected overall lead of 322 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
      
    Likely Republican
     
    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.3%
    Utah: Trump up by 4.9%
    Texas: Trump up by 4.4%
     
    Leaning Republican
     
    Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
    Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
     
    Tied
     
    Arizona
    Ohio
     
    Leaning Democrat
     
    Florida: Clinton up by 2%
    Nevada: Clinton up by 2%
    North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.9%
     
    Likely Democrat
     
    Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
    Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
    Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 6%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
     
    Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

    NATIONAL POLLING

    New polls today from Quinnipiac (Clinton +7), Bloomberg (Clinton +9), Economist (Clinton +4), and Reuters (Clinton +4).

    The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 6.8%.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    As we all know, the third and final debate was held last night in Las Vegas and things seemed to have been going reasonably well for Donald Trump...right up until the one moment that overshadowed everything else that happened on the stage.

    Associated Press -- Trump refuses to say if he'll accept election results

    Threatening to upend a fundamental pillar of American democracy, Donald Trump refused to say in debate that he will accept the results of next month's election if he loses to Hillary Clinton. The Democratic nominee declared Trump's resistance "horrifying."

    CNN -- Trump refuses to say whether he'll accept election results

    Donald Trump on Wednesday refused to say he would accept the result of the presidential election if he loses to Hillary Clinton, raising the possibility of an extraordinary departure from principles that have underpinned American democracy for more than two centuries.

    Fox News -- Trump won’t commit to accepting election results

    Donald Trump would not commit Wednesday night to accepting the results of the presidential election if he loses on Nov. 8, in a striking moment during his final debate with Hillary Clinton that underscored the deepening tensions in the race – as the bitter rivals defined the choice for voters on an array of issues not three weeks from Election Day.

    Politico -- Trump refuses to say he’ll accept losing

    Donald Trump delivered another unprecedented historical moment during the final presidential debate Wednesday night when the Republican nominee, who appears on his way to a landslide loss, refused to say that he would accept the election’s outcome.

    The Hill -- Trump sparks furor at final debate

    Donald Trump's refusal to say that he will accept the presidential election’s outcome overshadowed all else during his third debate with Hillary Clinton, in Las Vegas on Wednesday evening. Virtually no one in the political world argued that the GOP nominee would benefit from the move.
     

  • 19 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Texas, Nevada, North Carolina, Colorado, Wisconsin, New Jersey, Oregon, Massachusetts

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Wed, 19 Oct 2016 12:40:00 +0000

    STATE POLLING

    New polls today from Texas (Trump +3), Nevada (Clinton +7), North Carolina (Clinton +2), Colorado (Clinton +5), Wisconsin (Clinton +8), New Jersey (Clinton +11), Oregon (Clinton +7), and Massachusetts (Clinton +26).

    The emergency sirens and bright flashing red lights spinning at the RNC offices this morning can only mean one thing: the GOP is now legitimately in danger of losing Texas.

    Yes, you read that right, Texas.

    Trump's numbers in the Lone State State have been dropping steadily over the past month, and today's poll is the lowest ever. Right now, the state is still dark pink on our map, but there has to be a lot of worry in GOP and RNC circles about this trend.

    As for the rest of the polls, lots of good news for Team Clinton, especially the strong numbers in Nevada, Colorado, and Wisconsin.

    If this were any other campaign, I'd already be calling the race for her and asking her staff what the curtain measurements are in the Oval Office. However, this has been anything but a normal campaign, and there's still tonight's final debate. But it certainly does not look good for Team Trump, and hasn't for several weeks now.

    No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 340 to 198. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

    Likely Republican

    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.3%
    Texas: Trump up by 5.2%
    Georgia: Trump up by 5.2%

    Leaning Republican

    Iowa: Trump up by 3.3%
    Arizona: Trump up by 1.3%

    Leaning Democrat

    Ohio: Clinton up by 1.1%
    North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.4%
    Florida: Clinton up by 3.1%
    New Hampshire: Clinton up by 3.3%
    Nevada: Clinton up by 3.3%

    Likely Democrat

    Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
    Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 6%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6.3%

    Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

    NATIONAL POLLING

    New polls today from Bloomberg (Clinton +9), Fox News (Clinton +6), and NBC News (Clinton +6).

    The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7.9%.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    Associated Press -- Clinton, Trump set for last debate as ugly race nears finish

    Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump's ugly and acrimonious battle for the White House is barreling toward the end, with the candidates taking the debate stage Wednesday night for one final primetime showdown.

    CNN -- What to watch for in the last Clinton-Trump face-off

    For Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, it's time to begin the closing arguments. Both nominees enter Wednesday's presidential debate -- the final showdown of the election season -- with historically high unfavorability ratings, and need to convince undecided voters why the country would be worse off with their opponent in the White House.

    Fox News -- Trump tensions with party causing headaches down ballot 

    Ardent Donald Trump supporters are expected to turn out Election Day in large numbers, but their support for GOP congressional candidates -- particularly those distancing themselves from the party's presidential nominee -- appears increasingly uncertain.

    Politico -- RNC members agree with Trump: It's rigged

    Donald Trump is spending the final weeks of his presidential bid declaring he's the victim of an unprecedented vote-rigging conspiracy meant to elect Hillary Clinton. Many top Republican Party officials agree.

    The Hill -- Trump seeks game-changer in last debate

    Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are set to face a huge national audience together for the last time before Election Day. The stakes could hardly be higher Wednesday in Las Vegas, where the two major-party presidential nominees will meet for their third and final debate.
     

  • 20 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Louisiana, Utah, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Colorado, Pennsylvania

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Tue, 18 Oct 2016 11:34:00 +0000

    STATE POLLING

    New polls today from Louisiana (Trump +7), Utah (Trump +1), Florida (Clinton +4), North Carolina (Clinton +1), Nevada (Clinton +2), Colorado (Clinton +8), Pennsylvania (Clinton +6), and two from Ohio (tied, Trump +4).

    Finally, some good news for Team Trump, as they have turned things around in Ohio, which had been perilously close to slipping away from them. Though it's unclear how the recent dustup between the campaign and the state party in Ohio will affect Trump's ground game there. Louisiana is still solidly red, though a bit closer than anyone likely expected at the start of the summer.

    For Team Clinton, aside from the abovementioned slip in Ohio, things are on par: holding slim but steady leads in North Carolina, Nevada and Florida, and larger leads in Colorado and Pennsylvania.

    And Utah is...well, a complete wild card, with Trump polling 30%, Clinton at 29%, and Evan McMullin at 29%. Could we actually see one of the most reliable Republican states (having voted for the GOP candidate in 16 of the last 17 elections) actually turn away from the GOP? It's entirely possible as native son McMullin could become the first independent candidate since George Wallace to win a state. And, considering the wild swings in recent polling numbers, this one is far from clear -- it could be a nail-biter or a complete blow-out.

    No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 340 to 198. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

    Likely Republican

    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
    Texas: Trump up by 5.9%
    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.3%
    Georgia: Trump up by 5.2%

    Leaning Republican

    Iowa: Trump up by 3.3%
    Arizona: Trump up by 1.3%

    Leaning Democrat

    Ohio: Clinton up by 1.1%
    Nevada: Clinton up by 2.6%
    North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.7%
    Florida: Clinton up by 3.1%
    New Hampshire: Clinton up by 3.3%

    Likely Democrat

    Colorado: Clinton up by 5.4%
    Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 6%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6.3%

    Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

    NATIONAL POLLING

    New polls today from NBC News (Clinton +6), CBS News (Clinton +9), GWU (Clinton +8), and Monmouth (Clinton +12). Apparently, everyone agrees that Clinton is moving further ahead of Trump, it's just that none of them really agree on how far ahead.

    The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 8.3%.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    Associated Press -- Trump wrongly insists voter fraud is 'very, very common'

    Donald Trump is insisting voter fraud does, indeed, pose a significant threat to the integrity of the U.S. electoral system, claiming the election could be rigged "at the polling booths" despite a lack of evidence and experts' insistence to the contrary.

    CNN -- Why Trump's talk of a rigged vote is so dangerous

    Donald Trump is playing with fire. The Republican presidential nominee's claim that the election is being rigged against him represents the most outlandish moment yet in a campaign devoted to dismantling political norms.

    Fox News -- Media rigging election? Press hits back hard at Trump's rhetoric

    Donald Trump is now openly accusing the media of rigging the election, while much of the media accuse him of trafficking in crackpot conspiracy theories. There’s no pretense any more, no fig leaf of honest but aggressive engagement. And that is driving us toward a bizarre finish in the strangest election of modern times.

    Politico -- Trump builds on voter fraud claims rated false by fact-checker

    Taking fire from all sides for his claim that American democracy is “rigged,” Donald Trump cited academic studies to justify his claims that the country is beset by widespread voter fraud Monday night in Wisconsin.

    The Hill -- Trump looks for lifeline in final presidential debate

    It’s now or never for Donald Trump. The Republican nominee must find some way to get traction in what could be an explosive presidential debate on Wednesday.
     

  • 21 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Utah, Florida, Colorado, Virginia

    moampolitics.blogspot.com | Mon, 17 Oct 2016 11:15:00 +0000

    STATE POLLING

    New polls today from Utah (Trump +17), Florida (Clinton +4), Colorado (Clinton +5), and Virginia (Clinton +15).

    Utah is just getting weird. One week, Trump is well ahead, the next he's tied with Clinton and bare points ahead of independent candidate Evan McMullin, and now he's back well ahead with Clinton and McMullin in a distant tie for second place.

    Which may be the only bright spot, polling wise, Trump has had in the past week or so. Florida and Colorado continue to move away from him, and Virginia is now pretty much a lost cause (even though Trump claims he's "just moving staff around" in the state instead of pulling out completely, as had been reported several days earlier).

    It's not really clear at this point what he can do to turn around his cratering campaign (calling the election "rigged" and accusing Clinton of taking "performance enhancing drugs" are not the way to do it), but he really only has until Wednesday night to figure out how to get the runaway train back on the tracks. For that's the night of the last head-to-head debate between the two candidates, and his last chance to change the dynamics of the race.

    Two changes to the map today: Utah moves from "likely" to "solid" Republican while Virginia moves from "likely" to "solid" Democrat. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 340 to 198. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
     
    Likely Republican

    Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
    Texas: Trump up by 5.9%
    Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.3%
    Georgia: Trump up by 5.2%

    Leaning Republican

    Iowa: Trump up by 3.3%
    Arizona: Trump up by 1.3%

    Leaning Democrat

    Florida: Clinton up by 2.6%
    North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.9%
    Nevada: Clinton up by 3%
    New Hampshire: Clinton up by 3.3%
    Ohio: Clinton up by 3.5%

    Likely Democrat

    Colorado: Clinton up by 4%
    Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
    New Mexico: Clinton up by 6%
    Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6.3%

    Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

    NATIONAL POLLING

    New polls today from NBC News/Wall St. Journal (Clinton +11) and Lake Research/Tarrance Group (Clinton +8).

    The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7.7%.

    TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

    Associated Press -- Koch brothers' network focusing on GOP Senate, not Trump

    To the Republicans in the red "Can't Afford Katie" T-shirts, it's as if Donald Trump doesn't even exist. These activists have been sprinting through Pennsylvania neighborhoods, talking to people about how bad Democrat Katie McGinty would be as a U.S. senator.

    CNN -- Conservative newspaper that endorsed Clinton details death threats

    The Arizona Republic's editorial board knew it was wading into controversy last month when it endorsed a Democrat for president -- the first time it had done so in its 126-year history. Nut some of the backlash that followed the paper's decision to back Hillary Clinton instead of Donald Trump went beyond the pale

    Fox News -- Team Trump relentless on saying media 'rigging' election

    The Donald Trump campaign on Sunday heaped more blame on the media, accusing news organizations of “rigging” the election for Democratic rival Hillary Clinton but vowing to accept the Nov. 8 results -- win or lose. "We will absolutely accept the results of the election," Republican vice-presidential nominee Mike Pence said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

    Politico -- North Carolina county GOP office attacked; Trump blames 'animals'

    A North Carolina Republican Party office was firebombed overnight and threatening words painted nearby, party officials reported Sunday. According to the Charlotte Observer, the attack occurred in the party's Orange County office in Hillsborough.

    The Hill -- Republicans fear for party's future

    The Republican Party is in crisis — and it is going to get worse before it gets better. The forces unleashed by Donald Trump’s presidential campaign are unlikely to disappear after the election, party insiders concede, even if Hillary Clinton beats him handily in November.
     

Comments:
  • Your name:
Top 10: USA
The recent titles of the station:
radio musical