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  • If the current CON leadership rules had been in place in November 1990 Maggie would probably have survived | Sun, 23 Sep 2018 23:54:53 +0000

    November 1990 – Mrs. T leaves Number 10 A CON leader is now much more secure than it was in 1990 One of the things that’s driving me crazy at the moment is the sheer level of of ignorance from parts of the media and even some MPs about how CON leaders can be ousted […]

  • With or without EU, will anybody follow Le Royaume-Uni’s lead? | Sun, 23 Sep 2018 14:10:38 +0000

    This market on which countries will leave the EU by the end of 2025 from Paddy Power on first inspection seems like an excellent way to contribute to the Paddy Power bonus fund. In terms of disasters for the United Kingdom a no deal Brexit is to picture the Hindenburg meets Chernobyl meets the fall […]

  • Six Impossible Things Before Brexit | Sun, 23 Sep 2018 03:30:09 +0000

    With six months to go, the ultimate denouement of Brexit looks as murky as ever.  That hasn’t stopped plenty of people trying to peer through the vapours.  If you are going to speculate, go right ahead, but it’s probably best not base your speculations on things that are downright wrong.  So let’s take a stroll […]

  • New ComRes poll finds LAB catching up with the Tories as the one best described as “The Nasty Party” | Sat, 22 Sep 2018 20:14:40 +0000

    A new ComRes poll commissioned by Jewish News has found the CON lead over the label ‘the nasty party’, memorably coined by TMay at the Party’s 2002 Conference, is now being challenged by Corbyn’s LAB. The poll found that while 34% said they thought the Conservatives are ‘the nasty party’, almost as many – 31% […]

  • The biggest US midterms battle: Beto O’Rourke’s Texas effort to unseat Ted Cruz | Sat, 22 Sep 2018 14:25:58 +0000

    The Senate race that could deprive the Republicans of their majority Of all the elections that are taking place across the US in November the one that’s attracting the most attention is the effort by Beto O’Rourke to take the Texas Senate seat held by Ted Cruz. Overnight there was the first TC debate as […]

  • TMay hasn’t had front pages like this since she made the fateful decision to call GE2017 | Sat, 22 Sep 2018 05:56:58 +0000

    Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

  • TMay ends the week extending her satisfaction margin over Corbyn | Fri, 21 Sep 2018 17:03:57 +0000

    The latest numbers in what is by far the longest series of leader ratings in British politics, the satisfied/dissatisfied figures from Ipsos-MORI, are out and show TMay just about holding steady but with a sizeable drop for Corbyn. Fieldwork took place before yesterday’s EU summit in Salzburg. As can be seen both are in negative […]

  • NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Chequers is dead, so should Labour offer a ‘people’s vote’? | Fri, 21 Sep 2018 10:55:02 +0000

    As Labour heads to Liverpool, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the polling and ask whether it is in Labour’s interests to offer another vote on Brexit. They lay out the case for and against and debate what happens next. Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet

  • While the nation faces huge and historic issues over Brexit Labour gathers in Liverpool to talk about itself | Fri, 21 Sep 2018 06:51:38 +0000

    Meanwhile Phil Collins is dead right – while the Tories go through their Brexit travails all Corbyn's LAB wants to talk about is itself — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 21, 2018 Today’s Times column by Phillip Collins hits the nail on the head about Labour and its current state. “..The issues of the hour […]

  • Salzburg: Betting across a range of relevant political markets has hardly moved | Thu, 20 Sep 2018 20:17:35 +0000

    Punters are hanging on to their cash Given the enormity of what’s happened at the EU Salzburg summit I though it useful to look at reaction across a range of market on the Betfair exchange: Next UK General Election most seats It was CON 50% chance to LAB 45% on Betfair 24 hours ago and […]

  • TMay heads back from Salzburg looking more isolated than ever | Thu, 20 Sep 2018 15:36:07 +0000

    Rarely has a prime minister looked more isolated both home and abroad. Great pic from the inimitable @StefanRousseau — Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) September 20, 2018 it feels pretty serious out here for the prospects of a deal – what's more worrying is it seems again the two sides have misunderstood each other's politics but, […]

  • How the readership of the main national papers are split on Brexit | Thu, 20 Sep 2018 11:30:16 +0000

    YouGov have just published a poll which shows how readers of different newspapers are viewing brexit and how they would vote in a new referendum. For some reason the Sun does not appear to be included. In broad terms the results are what you would expect with Guardian readers being staunchly for Remain while Express […]

  • NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Where do the Lib Dems go from here? | Wed, 19 Sep 2018 20:55:27 +0000

    Keiran Pedley is joined by Mark Pack of the Lib Dem Newswire to discuss this week’s Lib Dem conference. Keiran and Mark discuss how the conference went and where the party goes from here and Mark gives everyone an outside tip on who the next Lib Dem leader might be when Vince Cable steps down. […]

  • Ashcroft US poll finds 53% saying there are grounds to believe that Trump committed crimes that would warrant impeachment | Wed, 19 Sep 2018 15:42:26 +0000

    Nearly a half believe Trump campaign colluded with Russia & he was aware A 6k sample poll of US voters has just been published by Lord Ashcroft and sets the scene for the important midterm elections that take place in the first week in November. Currently the Democratic party is enjoying reasonable leads in generic […]

  • In the only 2018 polls to be tested against real results LAB shares were overstated by 7%+ | Wed, 19 Sep 2018 03:55:43 +0000

    GE17 LAB polling understatement doesn’t mean that the same will happen next time One of the things that true believer Corbynistas keep telling me on Twitter is that last year’s general election was a turning point in British politics and that the rules have changed. Thus anything that doesn’t fit into this narrative has to […]

  • My 66/1 longshot for WH2020 now favourite for the Democratic nomination and 2nd favourite for the Presidency | Tue, 18 Sep 2018 15:56:45 +0000

    While I was on holiday I was grateful that TSE Tweeted my post from January 18th 2017, two days before Trump was inaugurated, on my long-shot bet for WH2020 – Senator Kamala Harris of California. On Betfair Harris is currently a 16% chance for the nomination and 10% to become next president. In November 2016 […]

  • Betfair punters make it about an evens chance that TMay will be out next year – I’m not tempted | Tue, 18 Sep 2018 06:37:08 +0000

    A no confidence move is highly risky for any plotters One of the great jobs of returning from a longish holiday is reviewing how things have changed while you’ve been away and the biggest move over the past three weeks is how the Chequers Brexit plan is gathering support. Maybe the Mail was following rather […]

  • Labour’s Oldies’ headache: Turnout levels reverting to GE2015 levels | Mon, 17 Sep 2018 18:48:34 +0000

    And will young voter enthusiasm be retained? Unlike Alastair Meeks on the previous thread I am far less certain that Labour, certainly under Corbyn, have a good chance of winning most seats, let alone getting a majority at the next election. The boundaries, the lack of any discernable progress in Scotland and the ongoing blowback […]

  • Ruthless People. The Conservatives lose a leadership contender | Mon, 17 Sep 2018 12:46:59 +0000

    A pregnant Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson has told the Sunday Times she never wants to be prime minister, and opened up about her depression and suicidal thoughts — also pulling up her sleeve to show her self-harm scars. Wow. — Mark Di Stefano ?? (@MarkDiStef) September 15, 2018 I have an announcement to […]

  • Et tu, John? Is another JC set to get stabbed in the back by a close ally? | Mon, 17 Sep 2018 02:40:56 +0000

    Well this is very interesting. 'Allies of McDonnell claim he has become increasingly frustrated with Corbyn and his team over their botched handling of the anti-semitism row this summer, which overshadowed a carefully planned grid of policy announcements'. — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 16, 2018 The truly great, such as Caesar & Thatcher, are […]

  • With just over six months to go until Brexit day YouGov looks where the public stands | Sun, 16 Sep 2018 14:30:08 +0000

    1/ Public opinion has drifted slightly against Brexit. On average this year there has been a 3 point lead of those who think Britain was wrong to vote for Brexit over those who think Britain was right to do so — YouGov (@YouGov) September 12, 2018 2/ While Theresa May comes in for […]

  • Betting on Labour’s GB wide share of the vote at the next general election | Sun, 16 Sep 2018 03:00:41 +0000

    Ladbrokes have a market up on Labour’s GB wide share of the vote at the next election and this is a market I’m going to avoid for the time being for the following known unknowns I’m not sure when the next general election is, I can see the next general election happening anywhere from this […]

  • If you think Beto O’Rourke is going to win Texas in November then these might make for good bets | Sat, 15 Sep 2018 14:58:44 +0000

    The Dems winning Texas in a Presidential election changes the electoral maths. In recent times Texas has been a safe banker for the GOP but demographics are trending back to the Dems, so what might help tip the balance is if the Dems choose a native son or daughter to be their nominee. If you […]

  • There will be no second referendum whether Labour backs it or not | Sat, 15 Sep 2018 05:17:22 +0000

    Indeed, Labour best hope is to push for one – but to fail Brexit is not unlike Hurricane Florence. A huge amount of energy is being expended, mostly to destructive effect, dumping a load of output which is flooding out a great deal else, while not going anywhere fast. And just as Florence attracts storm-chasers, […]

  • The Daily Mail’s change of tone Brexit should help Mrs May sell her Brexit deal | Fri, 14 Sep 2018 14:57:51 +0000

    Something feels different about the headlines in today's Daily Mail — Jack Blanchard (@Jack_Blanchard_) September 12, 2018 At this rate the Daily Mail will soon be backing another referendum. Daily Mail backs May's Brexit plan and brands rebel Tories 'traitors'Editorial laments plotting by Brexiter Conservatives against PM as apparent ‘death wish’. — […]

  • Richard Nabavi on the US Senate elections | Fri, 14 Sep 2018 08:55:21 +0000

    On the 6th November, 33 of the 100 seats in the US Senate come up for election. The Democrats currently hold 47 seats and two independents caucus with them, so they need a net gain of two for them to get control1. Unfortunately for the Democrats, the starting position is rather difficult; of the 35 […]

  • NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Who are the centrists and who do they think they are? | Thu, 13 Sep 2018 21:11:34 +0000

    On the latest episode of the PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss some recent polling by Opinium that looks at where Brits place themselves of the left-right political scale, who classes themselves as ‘centrist’ and what they think it means. Follow this week’s podcasters: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet

  • PB Video Analysis: Demographics, First They Lift You Up… | Thu, 13 Sep 2018 12:00:30 +0000

    Economically speaking, the last two centuries have been pretty good for much of Europe, North America and Asia. People live longer, are healthier, and are richer than ever before. Before about 1850, economies grew slowly, barely more than a percent a year on a per capita basis. Since 1850, they’ve powered ahead. This spurt is […]

  • Some Brexit betting specials | Thu, 13 Sep 2018 03:15:26 +0000

    As we get closer to Brexit day Paddy Power have some Brexit specials up. The ERG have repeatedly shown themselves to be as impotent as eunuchs, so for all the talk of ousting Mrs May they simply don’t have the numbers so I think out of those bets Mrs May still being PM on the […]

  • Who will be Time person of the year 2018? | Wed, 12 Sep 2018 15:00:54 +0000

    I’ve been looking at William Hill’s market on who will be the Time person of the year and my tip is out of that lot is Robert Mueller at 25/1. With several convictions, guilty pleas, and assorted plea deals the so called witch hunt is rather effective and hunting down witches. All of this explains […]

  • Twisting on 17: the hardline Leavers’ great gamble | Wed, 12 Sep 2018 07:51:33 +0000

    Picture credit @DelMody on twitter “Vote Leave, Take Back Control” was the slogan.  This conjured up a vision of a democratic army peacefully occupying Downing Street and resetting the priorities of government to be aligned with the needs of everyday people.  The vision turned out to be a fata Morgana.  The referendum was won by […]

  • BONUS PB/Polling Matters podcast: What do the boundary commission proposals mean? | Tue, 11 Sep 2018 18:26:31 +0000

    On a bonus episode of the Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Professor Ron Johnston from the University of Bristol to discuss the Boundary Commission’s proposals this week for reforming parliamentary constituencies in Westminster. Ron explains how it’s all done, the potential implications if the current proposals are adopted and what happens next. Follow @KeiranPedley […]

  • Labour’s gains in Scotland were mostly down to the SNP misplacing nearly half a million voters, not because of some great love for Corbyn. | Tue, 11 Sep 2018 13:15:18 +0000

    The SNP lost nearly half a million votes since the GE2015, Labour only gained fewer than 10,000. For every 48 voters the SNP lost Labour gained only 1 voter. For every 3 voters Lab gained the Scottish Tories gained nearly 100 voters. — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 11, 2018 Analysing the Corbyn ‘surge’ in Scotland […]

  • If Ted Cruz is running ads like this then I’m concluding his campaign is in trouble | Tue, 11 Sep 2018 03:00:38 +0000

    Ted Cruz is using doctored footage to make it look like Beto O'Rourke supports flag burning (he doesn't) — NowThis (@nowthisnews) September 10, 2018 After watching that video above I had one overwhelming thought, Ted Cruz knows he is in trouble in his campaign to hold his Senate seat in Texas. Now why is […]

  • Some pretty grim polling in London for the Tories, Labour, and Sadiq Khan | Mon, 10 Sep 2018 13:53:21 +0000

    London Westminster voting intention: LAB: 48% (-7)CON: 26% (-7)LDEM: 15% (+6)GRN: 5% (+3)UKIP: 4% (+3) via @YouGov, 03 – 07 Seph/t @MileEndInst Chgs. w/ 2017 election result. — Britain Elects (@britainelects) September 10, 2018 Brexit, anti-Semitism, and crime all seem to be having an impact I think the collapse in the Tory and Lab vote […]

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